Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:57:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3A 0x3a30…34b1 sports 1227 markets active 2h ago coverage 225d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$26,485 (+3%) realized +$26,485 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate70%864W / 363L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$687per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$5,011est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,470
7 days−$16,993
14 days−$10,834
30 days−$15,038
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$14,993
crypto 8% −$4,584
other 5% +$8,907
world 0% +$480
politics 0% +$5
economics 0% −$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 120 -45.2% -50.4% 42% 34% -39.6%
≤30d 379 +1.5% -8.2% 74% 60% -13.9%
≤90d 1020 -10.2% -18.7% 66% 52% -7.8%
all 1227 -1.3% -10.7% 70% 57% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 57% -7.4%
10% ← realistic here -19.2% 36% -16.3%
15% -27.0% 23% -24.4%
20% -34.2% 15% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$175 vs −$362 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

225d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$26,485
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses864 / 363
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$5,011
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1227 / 1227
History coverage225d
Avg bet$687
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1227 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 24 $707 −$699 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 24 $504 +$203 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 24 $320 +$184 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 24 $202 +$119 +59%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Jun 24 $2,316 −$2,115 -91%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Remy Bertola vs Jurij Rodionov Jun 24 $1,579 −$1,573 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 24 $151 +$29 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 24 $206 +$153 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 24 $127 −$127 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 24 $101 +$24 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 24 $193 +$67 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 23 $44 +$9 +20%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni (BO5) - European Pro League Playo Jun 23 $1,451 +$443 +30%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $1,070 +$381 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 23 $55 +$19 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 23 $254 −$254 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 23 $270 −$270 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 22 $60 +$18 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 22 $14 +$6 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 22 $104 +$48 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 22 $161 +$21 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 22 $1,025 +$135 +13%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $1,197 +$740 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 22 $103 +$59 +58%
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast A Jun 22 $2,002 +$306 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 22 $126 −$126 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 22 $245 +$103 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 22 $1,590 +$436 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 22 $196 −$196 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 22 $1,267 +$295 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 22 $307 −$307 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 22 $798 +$693 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 22 $479 −$479 -100%
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Martin Landaluce Jun 22 $800 −$322 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 22 $123 −$123 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 22 $28 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 22 $163 +$59 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 22 $783 +$81 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 22 $558 +$226 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 22 $36 +$21 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 22 $418 +$118 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 22 $362 +$56 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 22 $313 +$50 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 22 $252 +$61 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 22 $189 +$62 +33%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series Jun 22 $1,013 −$824 -81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $698 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $460 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $308 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $185 2h
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group SELL Eternal Fire 4¢ $202 2h
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group BUY Eternal Fire 41¢ $27 3h
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group BUY Eternal Fire 42¢ $2,289 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Remy Bertola vs Jurij Rodionov BUY Jurij Rodionov 89¢ $74 4h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Remy Bertola vs Jurij Rodionov BUY Jurij Rodionov 89¢ $1,505 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $101 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $50 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $6 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $37 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $163 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $127 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $7 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $54 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $133 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $9 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $24 19h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni (BO5) - European Pro League Playo SELL 4ikibamboni 100¢ $1,894 21h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni (BO5) - European Pro League Playo BUY 4ikibamboni 76¢ $11 24h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni (BO5) - European Pro League Playo BUY 4ikibamboni 76¢ $987 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3060 history records