Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:11:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
3A 0x3a31…5972 crypto 71 markets active 2d ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (68 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$301 (+2%) realized +$301 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate61%43W / 28L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$241per market
Trades / day68.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$5
other 5% +$116
sports 0% −$11
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (68 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 +6.8% -3.4% 61% 48% -9.0%
≤30d 71 +6.8% -3.4% 61% 48% -9.0%
≤90d 71 +6.8% -3.4% 61% 48% -9.0%
all 71 +6.8% -3.4% 61% 48% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover68.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.4% 48% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -12.6% 28% -17.7%
15% -21.1% 17% -25.6%
20% -28.8% 10% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +16% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$106 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$301
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses43 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)71 / 71
History coverage3d
Avg bet$241
Trades / day68.0
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 71 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $405 −$405 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -5%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10 $0 -5%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $10 $0 -5%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 13 $10 $0 -5%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $10 $0 -4%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $10 $0 -2%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10 $0 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $21 −$2 -11%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $31 −$5 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $31 −$3 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $52 −$5 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $202 +$26 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $306 +$131 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $407 −$300 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $102 +$42 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $201 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $202 +$35 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $101 +$25 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $409 −$300 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 13 $101 +$13 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $51 +$32 +62%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $10 +$45 +433%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $625 −$533 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $904 −$904 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $205 +$104 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $302 +$26 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $305 +$107 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 13 $201 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $203 +$62 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $203 +$42 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 13 $202 +$25 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $528 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 13 $102 +$39 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 13 $152 +$44 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $202 +$39 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 13 $405 +$87 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $203 +$58 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 13 $403 +$48 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 13 $505 +$93 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $203 +$58 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 13 $301 +$8 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $102 +$48 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $301 −$2 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 57¢ $9 47h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 47¢ $9 47h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 48¢ $10 47h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 50¢ $10 47h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 52¢ $10 47h
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 52¢ $10 47h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 64¢ $10 47h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 60¢ $10 47h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 40¢ $10 47h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $18 47h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $27 47h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $28 47h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $47 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $101 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $101 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $102 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $101 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $101 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $102 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $103 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $102 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $101 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $102 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $102 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $52 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $102 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $102 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 277 history records