Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T01:04:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3a37…817d crypto 55 markets active 0h ago coverage 274d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$78 (-1%) realized −$81 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate77%41W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$222per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$153now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$31
14 days−$31
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 83% −$16
crypto 7% +$1
other 5% −$73
sports 3% −$26
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -24.3% -31.5% 40% 20% -19.2%
≤30d 8 -13.9% -22.1% 50% 25% -17.4%
≤90d 13 -16.2% -24.2% 62% 15% -31.0%
all 53 -5.6% -14.6% 77% 11% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 11% -10.4%
10% -22.8% 8% -19.0%
15% -30.2% 4% -26.8%
20% -37.1% 2% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$13 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

274d coverage
Net worth$153
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses41 / 12
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)53 / 55
History coverage274d
Avg bet$222
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Over 74¢ 78¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 48¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $102 −$30 -30%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 +$5 +53%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $152 +$9 +6%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $21 −$10 -50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $21 −$5 -23%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$7 +33%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 14? May 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? May 23 $82 −$82 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 6? May 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Apr 29 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 18? Mar 31 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 11? Mar 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 9? Mar 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026? Mar 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 1? Mar 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 26? Mar 07 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 22? Feb 26 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 16? Feb 20 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 13? Feb 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on February 1 Feb 11 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on February 2? Feb 09 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on January 28? Feb 01 $34 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $102,000 on January 26? Jan 28 $44 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104,000 and $106,000 on January Jan 24 $76 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 January 12-18? Jan 20 $75 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on January 13? Jan 17 $74 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 12? Jan 13 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 9? Jan 12 $85 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 04 $85 $0 +0%
Lighter Airdrop on December 26? Dec 31 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 22? Dec 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 7? Dec 22 $20 $0 +0%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 26? Dec 07 $20 $0 +0%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 21? Dec 07 $20 $0 +0%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 14? Nov 22 $20 $0 +1%
Will Canton launch a token in 2025? Nov 15 $10 $0 +0%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 10 $84 +$1 +1%
Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $84 $0 +0%
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 27? Oct 28 $84 $0 +0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 27 $75 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 27 $73 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 26 $70 $0 -0%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-27? Oct 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 25 $69 $0 -0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31? Oct 09 $10,000 −$17 -0%
Will Napoli win on 2025-10-05? Oct 06 $6 +$3 +47%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-04? Oct 05 $10 +$2 +20%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 3? Oct 04 $102 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 24¢ $23 21m
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $101 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 46¢ $48 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $51 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $51 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 38¢ $5 10h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 78¢ $15 21h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 50¢ $10 21h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 47¢ $46 22h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 22h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 68¢ $67 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 45¢ $48 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 23h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 36h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $16 14d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 94¢ $27 15d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 19d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 35d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $6 44d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 6? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 52d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? BUY Yes 30¢ $82 58d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $25 87d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 101d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 11? BUY No 100¢ $10 108d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 9? BUY No 100¢ $10 111d
Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $16 114d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $153.23 · official $153.23 (match) · 148 history records