Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:47:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3A
0x3a39…68bd
crypto · 363 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$96 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$95 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$95
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses177 / 185
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)362 / 363
History coverage5d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day113.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 1 History 362 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$92
7 days−$95
14 days−$95
30 days−$95
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Up 71¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-33%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Down 82¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Knicks 41¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Up 68¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Down 98¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$4 +228%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 93% −$99
other 5% +$6
sports 1% −$3
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 31m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 362 -2.7% -12.0% 49% 38% -17.1%
≤30d 362 -2.7% -12.0% 49% 38% -17.1%
≤90d 362 -2.7% -12.0% 49% 38% -17.1%
all 362 -2.7% -12.0% 49% 38% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover113.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.0% 38% -17.1%
10% ← realistic here -20.4% 33% -25.1%
15% -28.1% 27% -32.3%
20% -35.2% 20% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.00 · official $0.88 (match) · 837 history records