Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:06:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3A 0x3a3a…5921 crypto 221 markets active 2h ago coverage 542d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$145 (+0%) realized +$144 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%218W / 2L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$298per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$611now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$14
14 days+$26
30 days+$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$132
tech 1% +$1
economics 0% +$3
politics 0% +$5
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 25 -3.7% -12.9% 96% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 68 -1.3% -10.7% 99% 0% -9.3%
all 220 -0.5% -9.9% 99% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.4% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$543) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$9 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×9.14 per $1 lost it wins $9.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

542d coverage
Net worth$611
Realized+$144
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses218 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)220 / 221
History coverage542d
Avg bet$298
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 220 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? No 100¢ 100¢ $610 $611 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $609 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $606 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $604 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $601 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $598 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $596 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $593 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $589 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $588 +$2 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $587 +$1 +0%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $585 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $585 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $584 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $581 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $580 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $579 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $579 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $577 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $576 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $574 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? May 31 $573 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 28? May 30 $572 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 26? May 27 $569 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? May 25 $564 +$5 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 22? May 23 $564 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 20? May 21 $562 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 18? May 19 $562 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 16? May 17 $561 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 13? May 14 $560 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 11? May 12 $560 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 10? May 11 $559 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 8? May 09 $559 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6? May 07 $558 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 5? May 06 $558 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 4? May 05 $557 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 3? May 04 $557 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 1? May 02 $555 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 29? Apr 30 $556 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 27? Apr 28 $553 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 24? Apr 26 $553 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 23? Apr 24 $551 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 22? Apr 22 $551 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 21? Apr 21 $550 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 20? Apr 20 $549 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 18? Apr 19 $548 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 17? Apr 17 $549 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 16? Apr 16 $548 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 15? Apr 15 $547 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 13? Apr 14 $546 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $610 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $609 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $606 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $604 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $601 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $598 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $596 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $593 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $589 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $588 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 100¢ $587 11d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $585 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $585 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $584 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? BUY No 99¢ $581 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $580 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $579 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $579 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $577 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $576 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $574 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $573 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $572 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $569 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? BUY No 99¢ $564 31d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $564 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $562 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $562 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 16? BUY No 100¢ $561 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $610.61 · official $610.61 (match) · 453 history records