Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:59:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3A
0x3a40…2755
crypto · 155 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$42 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$43 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses83 / 71
Open positions1
Markets (closed)154 / 155
History coverage26d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day14.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 1 History 154 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$40
7 days−$49
14 days−$62
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Down 0¢ 40¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Up 70¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $22 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $34 +$8 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $36 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $31 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $23 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +40%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 -1%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 -8%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +9%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +3%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +13%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$2 -43%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$3 -60%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 -11%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 86% −$6
other 14% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $14 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $7 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $8 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 31m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 128 -9.1% -17.8% 59% 34% -15.0%
≤30d 154 -7.3% -16.1% 54% 34% -13.8%
≤90d 154 -7.3% -16.1% 54% 34% -13.8%
all 154 -7.3% -16.1% 54% 34% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover14.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 34% -13.8%
10% -24.1% 19% -22.0%
15% -31.5% 12% -29.6%
20% -38.2% 6% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.14 · official $1.17 (match) · 429 history records