Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:50:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3a40…f29e world 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$254 (-5%) realized −$255 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate46%18W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$223
7 days−$223
14 days−$223
30 days−$223
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 79% +$46
finance 12% −$284
other 4% −$223
politics 4% $0
economics 1% −$42
culture 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 39 +29.2% +16.9% 46% 28% -20.2%
all 39 +29.2% +16.9% 46% 28% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.9% 28% -20.2%
10% +5.7% 18% -27.8%
15% -4.5% 10% -34.8%
20% -13.9% 5% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +95% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$62 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$255
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses18 / 21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)39 / 41
History coverage61d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 81¢ 90¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 18,000 in 2026? No 83¢ 80¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $230 −$223 -97%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Apr 30 $500 −$209 -42%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? Apr 29 $1,280 −$360 -28%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 27? Apr 28 $20 −$20 -100%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Apr 27 $50 −$31 -62%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Apr 27 $90 −$82 -91%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 27 $30 −$12 -39%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April? Apr 27 $200 −$147 -74%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 27 $100 −$80 -80%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Apr 27 $150 −$36 -24%
Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027? Apr 27 $50 −$3 -5%
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? Apr 26 $50 −$7 -14%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Apr 26 $50 −$7 -14%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Apr 26 $150 −$21 -14%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? Apr 25 $25 +$7 +28%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Apr 25 $200 +$19 +10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? Apr 25 $25 +$4 +16%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 25 $25 +$10 +42%
Will Trump dance during WHCA Dinner on April 25? Apr 25 $10 +$2 +21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? Apr 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Iran leadership change by April 30? Apr 25 $25 +$4 +15%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 26? Apr 24 $20 +$50 +249%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Apr 24 $50 +$2 +4%
Will ICEMAN debut No.1 on Billboard 200? Apr 23 $10 −$10 -95%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 23 $1 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $100 +$8 +8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 22 $10 −$10 -96%
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, Apr 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $30 −$30 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $300 +$15 +5%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $820 +$437 +53%
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? Apr 22 $50 +$3 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 22 $10 +$2 +23%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Apr 22 $26 +$11 +44%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by April 30? Apr 22 $40 +$7 +17%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 22 $4 $0 +5%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $730 +$214 +29%
Trump posts himself as Jesus again in April? Apr 20 $2 −$2 -96%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? Apr 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 0¢ $24 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 1¢ $206 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 25¢ $190 51d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? SELL Yes 15¢ $920 52d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 36¢ $101 53d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 6¢ $19 54d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? SELL Yes 0¢ $8 54d
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL Yes 1¢ $18 54d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April? SELL Yes 1¢ $53 54d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? SELL Yes 1¢ $20 54d
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL No 56¢ $114 54d
Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027? SELL No 57¢ $47 54d
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? SELL Yes 40¢ $43 55d
Iran coup attempt by June 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $43 55d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $129 55d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? BUY Yes 14¢ $80 56d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? SELL Yes 3¢ $32 56d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? SELL Yes 61¢ $2 56d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? SELL Yes 32¢ $1 56d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? SELL Yes 19¢ $0 56d
Will Trump dance during WHCA Dinner on April 25? SELL Yes 30¢ $0 56d
Will Trump dance during WHCA Dinner on April 25? SELL Yes 29¢ $12 56d
Iran leadership change by April 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $29 56d
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 73¢ $150 57d
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY Yes 1¢ $20 57d
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 26? SELL Yes 35¢ $70 57d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $52 57d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April? BUY Yes 5¢ $200 58d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? BUY Yes 1¢ $50 58d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? BUY Yes 3¢ $100 58d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.75 · official $20.75 (match) · 102 history records