Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:57:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3A 0x3a41…3b8d crypto 889 markets active 0h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$109 (-10%) realized −$108 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate51%454W / 436L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day17.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$9
14 days−$18
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$126
other 10% −$6
world 1% +$7
tech 0% $0
sports 0% +$2
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -29.5% -36.2% 39% 36% -33.4%
≤30d 132 -21.1% -28.6% 42% 39% -29.3%
≤90d 890 -9.5% -18.1% 51% 48% -20.1%
all 890 -9.5% -18.1% 51% 48% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 48% -20.1%
10% -25.9% 45% -27.7%
15% -33.1% 41% -34.7%
20% -39.6% 34% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$108
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses454 / 436
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)890 / 889
History coverage76d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day17.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 890 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 387 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +62%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +95%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +79%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +97%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +102%
BNB Up or Down - June 8, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 6, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +119%
BNB Up or Down - June 6, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 06 $1 +$2 +190%
BNB Up or Down - June 6, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 6, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 11m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 13h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 21h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 26h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 28h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 32h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 3d
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 3d
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 3d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.01 (match) · 1583 history records