Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:32:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3A 0x3a43…5ed7 other 81 markets active 2h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$482 (+12%) realized +$483 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate60%45W / 30L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$433
7 days+$423
14 days+$414
30 days+$390
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$574
economics 7% −$8
world 4% −$54
sports 4% +$44
finance 3% −$83
crypto 2% +$3
politics 1% −$7
tech 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 36% 21% +4.4%
≤30d 30 -8.0% -16.8% 40% 33% +2.8%
≤90d 50 +2.0% -7.7% 54% 44% +3.3%
all 75 +0.8% -8.8% 60% 39% +0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 39% +0.8%
10% -17.5% 36% -8.8%
15% -25.5% 35% -17.6%
20% -32.8% 20% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$9 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.72 per $1 lost it wins $2.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$483
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses45 / 30
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)75 / 81
History coverage131d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-30%)
Will USA be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Yes 26¢ 29¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $1,400 +$1 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $505 +$533 +106%
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31? Jun 27 $42 −$7 -16%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe Jun 26 $36 −$8 -22%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 26? Jun 26 $98 −$86 -88%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 25 $68 −$6 -9%
Will there be no next Home Secretary of the UK in 2026? Jun 25 $68 −$6 -9%
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 16, 2026? Jun 25 $8 −$4 -55%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? Jun 23 $4 −$1 -17%
World Cup: Any Team to Score 10+ Goals in the Group Stage? Jun 23 $10 +$7 +73%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $16 $0 +0%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$4 +36%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 23 $300 −$8 -3%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $186 +$3 +2%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $5 −$3 -62%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $10 +$4 +39%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
World Cup Goals H2H: Haaland vs. Alvarez Jun 17 $5 −$4 -83%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $5 +$2 +42%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 +$3 +286%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +44%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 +$6 +119%
Will there be a red flag during the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Club Blooming vs. CA River Plate: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? Jun 09 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $10 +$4 +38%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 May 30 $15 +$6 +40%
Will Aston Martin get pole position at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix May 28 $231 $0 +0%
Racing Club vs. Caracas FC: O/U 1.5 May 23 $20 +$4 +20%
CA Peñarol vs. SC Corinthians Paulista: O/U 1.5 May 22 $10 −$1 -9%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 22 $10 $0 -4%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-08? May 15 $20 +$9 +46%
Adelaide United FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 2.5 May 15 $20 +$20 +97%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs T May 05 $10 +$5 +48%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Francisco Comesana vs Lean May 05 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $5 −$1 -30%
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? Apr 26 $50 +$9 +17%
Will AA Argentinos Juniors win on 2026-04-06? Apr 08 $12 +$8 +67%
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score Apr 08 $15 +$6 +40%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in March? Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will there be a red flag during the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix? Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
P2P FDV above $15M one day after launch? Apr 04 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $20 +$12 +60%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Apr 02 $10 +$4 +38%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of March? Apr 02 $30 +$21 +69%
Will 01.xyz reach $5B in total volume by March 31, 2026? Apr 02 $109 +$25 +23%
Will Fernando Alonso finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Gran Mar 30 $58 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 100¢ $1,400 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $936 2h
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31? SELL Yes 71¢ $35 15h
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $42 16h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $12 19h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe SELL Yes 47¢ $29 26h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe BUY Yes 60¢ $36 35h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $79 39h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 26? SELL Up $12 39h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 49¢ $23 46h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 49¢ $75 46h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 31¢ $33 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 31¢ $29 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 34¢ $68 2d
Will there be no next Home Secretary of the UK in 2026? SELL Yes 62¢ $62 2d
Will there be no next Home Secretary of the UK in 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $68 2d
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 16, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 2d
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 16, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $8 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 4d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 4d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 4d
World Cup: Any Team to Score 10+ Goals in the Group Stage? SELL Yes 95¢ $18 4d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $16 4d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 4d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 4d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 4d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 4d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $3 4d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL Yes 73¢ $292 4d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY 73¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.96 · official $5.09 (match) · 205 history records