Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:16:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
3A 0x3a4a…b9b6 other 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$44 (+4%) realized +$44 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate62%26W / 16L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days+$81
14 days+$291
30 days+$301
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$237
sports 20% +$47
world 9% +$26
crypto 2% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -36.2% -42.3% 40% 35% +10.6%
≤30d 35 -2.2% -11.5% 60% 57% +17.6%
≤90d 35 -2.2% -11.5% 60% 57% +17.6%
all 42 +16.5% +5.4% 62% 57% +17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.4% 57% +17.4%
10% -4.7% 52% +6.1%
15% -13.9% 36% -4.1%
20% -22.3% 21% -13.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +66% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$2 · ×7.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×11.88 per $1 lost it wins $11.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses26 / 16
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 56
History coverage128d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $96 +$41 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 22? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? AND Jun 28 $35 +$17 +48%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 AND Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $4 $0 +1%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-2 Jun 26 $4 +$2 +42%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $3 +$1 +32%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $5 −$1 -29%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 +$25 +25%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Norway Jun 23 $1 +$2 +203%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $100 +$12 +12%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06 Jun 22 $80 +$21 +27%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$26 +26%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $1 $0 +13%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $1 +$1 +105%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? AND Will United States win on 20 Jun 20 $101 +$44 +44%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? A Jun 20 $45 +$15 +33%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17 Jun 20 $101 +$29 +29%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$8 +42%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? AN Jun 17 $174 +$64 +37%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +172%
Exact Score: Australia 3 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 +$2 +52%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $4 +$4 +109%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Feb 22 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Feb 22 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Feb 22 $1 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Feb 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Feb 22 $1 +$8 +797%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 7PM ET Feb 22 $1 +$1 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Feb 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $42 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 65¢ $40 24h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 72¢ $4 26h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 73¢ $52 26h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? AND BUY 67¢ $35 2d
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Spain BUY 44¢ $10 2d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals AND Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score AND BUY 23¢ $4 3d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-2 BUY 70¢ $4 3d
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 AND Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? SELL 52¢ $4 3d
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 AND Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY 50¢ $4 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY 75¢ $3 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? A BUY 30¢ $10 5d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? A BUY 28¢ $11 5d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY 61¢ $3 6d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY 80¢ $101 6d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY 89¢ $100 7d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Norway BUY 32¢ $1 7d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06 BUY 78¢ $80 7d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 98¢ $1 8d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 86¢ $1 8d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? AN BUY 6¢ $7 8d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2 8d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $1 8d
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 8d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY 79¢ $101 8d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06- BUY 21¢ $7 9d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? AND Will United States win on 20 BUY 69¢ $101 9d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? A BUY 74¢ $45 10d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 AND Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY 81¢ $101 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.29 · official $42.29 (match) · 103 history records