Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:06:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3A
0x3a4a…bd6a
sports · 53 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$17 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$22 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Net worth$8
Realized−$22
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses24 / 24
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)48 / 53
History coverage60d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%
Chart Positions 5 History 48 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 22¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 08 $5 $0 -8%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $9 +$1 +16%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 30 $3 +$1 +31%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 30 $8 +$1 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? May 14 $8 +$2 +21%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Avalanche vs. Wild: O/U 5.5 May 12 $5 +$3 +62%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $3 −$3 -100%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $3 −$3 -100%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 10 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC 328: Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon (Lightweight, Prelims) May 10 $6 −$6 -100%
UFC 328: Clayton Carpenter vs. Jose Ochoa (Flyweight, Early Prelims) May 10 $3 +$2 +57%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $3 −$3 -100%
UFC 328: Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio (Middleweight, Early Prelims) May 10 $2 +$3 +165%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $5 $0 -7%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score May 07 $10 +$3 +29%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 07 $7 −$7 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 May 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5 May 06 $10 +$4 +38%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 05 $15 −$15 -100%
Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 4.5 May 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $8 +$12 +145%
Arsenal FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 3.5 May 02 $9 +$3 +38%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-05-01? May 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $6 −$6 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, May 02 $7 +$6 +89%
UFC Fight Night: Beneil Dariush vs. Quillan Salkilld (Lightweight, Mai May 02 $6 +$2 +27%
UFC Fight Night: Tim Elliott vs. Steve Erceg (Flyweight, Main Card) May 02 $5 +$3 +57%
UFC Fight Night: Shamil Gaziev vs. Brando Pericic (Heavyweight, Prelim May 02 $5 +$5 +97%
UFC Fight Night: Tai Tuivasa vs. Louie Sutherland (Heavyweight, Main C May 02 $8 −$8 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Themba Gorimbo vs. Jonathan Micallef (Welterweight, P May 02 $7 +$3 +46%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? May 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 30 $15 +$11 +70%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score Apr 29 $18 +$7 +40%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 28 $9 +$7 +83%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 27 $19 $0 -1%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-26? Apr 27 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Liverpool FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 4.5 Apr 25 $7 +$2 +26%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $6 +$4 +67%
Burnley FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5 Apr 23 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-21? Apr 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $4 −$4 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5 Apr 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 56% −$15
other 40% +$1
crypto 5% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 41¢ $5 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 5d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 92¢ $10 6d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 78¢ $9 7d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 57¢ $4 14d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 24¢ $5 14d
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 72¢ $4 27d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 28d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 42¢ $3 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 28d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 28d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 28d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 28d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? BUY Yes 82¢ $8 31d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 31d
Avalanche vs. Wild: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 61¢ $5 33d
UFC 328: Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon (Lightweight, Prelims) BUY Jared Gordon 71¢ $3 36d
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C BUY Waldo Cortes-Acosta 44¢ $3 36d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Khamzat Chimaev 82¢ $3 36d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 20¢ $4 36d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 36d
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Tatsuro Taira 60¢ $3 36d
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Joaquin Buckley 39¢ $2 36d
UFC 328: Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon (Lightweight, Prelims) BUY Jared Gordon 71¢ $3 36d
UFC 328: Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio (Middleweight, Early Prelims) BUY Roman Kopylov 37¢ $2 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +3.6% -6.3% 50% 50% -3.4%
≤30d 7 -11.4% -19.8% 57% 43% -7.7%
≤90d 48 -14.5% -22.7% 50% 48% -15.4%
all 48 -14.5% -22.7% 50% 48% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.7% 48% -15.4%
10% -30.1% 44% -23.5%
15% -36.8% 35% -30.9%
20% -43.0% 25% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.62 · official $7.62 (match) · 112 history records