trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 13 | -2.2% | -11.5% | 69% | 62% | -4.2% |
| ≤30d | 18 | -0.6% | -10.0% | 67% | 50% | -5.2% |
| ≤90d | 24 | -12.1% | -20.5% | 58% | 46% | -15.4% |
| all | 24 | -12.1% | -20.5% | 58% | 46% | -15.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -20.5% | 46% | -15.4% |
| 10% | -28.1% | 29% | -23.5% |
| 15% | -35.1% | 25% | -30.9% |
| 20% | -41.4% | 12% | -37.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 43¢ | 33¢ | $376 | $290 | −$86 (-23%) |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? | No | 94¢ | 99¢ | $150 | $157 | +$8 (+5%) |
| Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | No | 96¢ | 97¢ | $50 | $51 | +$1 (+1%) |
| Will Afghanistan recognize Israel by June 30? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $30 | $30 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | Yes | 66¢ | 68¢ | $20 | $20 | +$0 (+2%) |
| Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? | Yes | 68¢ | 68¢ | $20 | $20 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? | Yes | 68¢ | 68¢ | $20 | $20 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? | Yes | 84¢ | 84¢ | $15 | $15 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? | Yes | 62¢ | 62¢ | $13 | $13 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? | Yes | 68¢ | 68¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? | Yes | 61¢ | 60¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? | Yes | 88¢ | 88¢ | $4 | $4 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will North Korea recognize Israel by June 30? | Jun 20 | $50 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | Jun 20 | $20 | +$11 | +55% |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? | Jun 20 | $20 | +$15 | +73% |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 19 | $10 | +$3 | +29% |
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 18 | $10 | −$10 | -99% |
| Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 18 | $2 | +$1 | +38% |
| Will England win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 17 | $10 | +$7 | +73% |
| Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 17 | $20 | +$7 | +36% |
| Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 17 | $10 | +$2 | +20% |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 16 | $10 | +$5 | +48% |
| Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 15 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 15 | $10 | −$10 | -99% |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 15 | $10 | −$10 | -99% |
| Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027? | Jun 12 | $50 | −$1 | -1% |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? | Jun 12 | $26 | $0 | +0% |
| Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30? | Jun 12 | $50 | −$1 | -1% |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el | Jun 12 | $20 | +$2 | +8% |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? | Jun 12 | $59 | +$7 | +12% |
| Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? | May 12 | $16 | −$16 | -96% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | May 12 | $20 | −$4 | -21% |
| Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? | May 06 | $40 | −$40 | -99% |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? | May 06 | $20 | −$20 | -98% |
| Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? | May 06 | $59 | +$12 | +21% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | May 01 | $50 | +$10 | +19% |