Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:07:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3a52…612f crypto 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 188d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$543 (-5%) realized −$542 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate48%29W / 31L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$175per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$253
14 days−$253
30 days−$253
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$134
other 35% −$579
finance 7% +$50
politics 0% −$16
sports 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -20.3% -27.9% 50% 45% -15.1%
≤30d 40 -20.3% -27.9% 50% 45% -15.1%
≤90d 40 -20.3% -27.9% 50% 45% -15.1%
all 60 -17.5% -25.4% 48% 42% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.4% 42% -15.3%
10% -32.5% 32% -23.4%
15% -39.0% 25% -30.8%
20% -45.0% 17% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -22% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$66 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

188d coverage
Net worth$110
Realized−$542
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses29 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)60 / 61
History coverage188d
Avg bet$175
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $110 $110 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $177 −$174 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $252 +$35 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $105 +$48 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 13 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $200 +$47 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$4 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 13 $178 −$173 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 13 $147 −$89 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $200 −$154 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 13 $476 +$60 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $130 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $237 −$110 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $212 +$34 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$42 +198%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$11 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $157 +$34 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $83 +$74 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$12 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 11 $246 +$160 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $222 +$32 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $16 −$13 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $173 +$63 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $113 +$63 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$9 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $193 −$193 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 11 $153 +$51 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 11 $83 +$78 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $47 +$4 +8%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $71 −$69 -97%
Will DoorDash report between 825 million and 850 million total orders Jan 19 $1 −$1 -65%
Will Tim Walz resign by June 30? Jan 19 $12 −$9 -72%
Will DoorDash report between 800 million and 825 million total orders Jan 19 $1 $0 -30%
Will DoorDash report 900 million or more total orders in Q4 2025? Jan 19 $857 −$618 -72%
Clavicular charged by Jan 31? Jan 04 $910 +$272 +30%
Will any Minnesota politician be charged with fraud by March 31? Jan 01 $2 +$2 +90%
Will Eight die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jan 01 $25 +$15 +62%
Will Elon Musk change his X profile picture by December 31? Jan 01 $76 +$31 +42%
Will the Gävle Goat burn in 2025? Dec 29 $8 −$4 -43%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 29 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $111 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $177 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $252 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $153 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $105 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $53 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $247 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $200 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $178 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $59 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $147 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $46 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $200 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $169 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $168 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $166 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $167 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $140 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $130 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $127 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $206 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $31 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $212 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $21 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.59 · official $109.59 (match) · 320 history records