Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:30:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
3A 0x3a54…eb40 other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$55 (-6%) realized −$117 · open +$62
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +76% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +60% what you keep after slip
Net edge+60%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$297now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$82
7 days−$82
14 days−$52
30 days−$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% −$82
other 22% +$74
politics 15% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+59.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -22.9% -30.2% 33% 33% -24.7%
≤30d 7 +76.3% +59.5% 57% 43% -17.2%
≤90d 7 +76.3% +59.5% 57% 43% -17.2%
all 7 +76.3% +59.5% 57% 43% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +59.5% 43% -17.2%
10% +44.2% 29% -25.1%
15% +30.3% 29% -32.3%
20% +17.5% 14% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +76% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$48 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$297
Realized−$117
Unrealized+$62
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage16d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Yes 61¢ 78¢ $234 $296 +$62 (+27%)
Hasan Piker arrested by June 30? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $172 +$62 +36%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $125 −$106 -85%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 18 $192 −$38 -20%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 08 $6 $0 +6%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $121 +$17 +14%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $14 +$14 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $234 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $172 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 10¢ $18 6h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $154 6h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $96 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $96 6d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 8d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $1 8d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $5 9d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 19¢ $1 9d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 18¢ $4 9d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 20¢ $1 10d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 21¢ $5 10d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 38¢ $6 10d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $120 10d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 33¢ $5 10d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 65¢ $21 10d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 12d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 12d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-05? SELL Yes 72¢ $27 12d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 31¢ $12 13d
Hasan Piker arrested by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 13d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 29¢ $112 13d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 23¢ $95 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $296.62 · official $294.33 (match) · 25 history records