Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:59:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3a57…82c1 crypto 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (153 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$78 (+10%) realized +$79 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate50%22W / 22L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day153.0pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% +$41
other 18% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (153 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +4.2% -5.7% 50% 41% -3.7%
≤30d 44 +4.2% -5.7% 50% 41% -3.7%
≤90d 44 +4.2% -5.7% 50% 41% -3.7%
all 44 +4.2% -5.7% 50% 41% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover153.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.7% 41% -3.7%
10% ← realistic here -14.8% 36% -12.9%
15% -23.0% 36% -21.3%
20% -30.5% 36% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$10 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized+$79
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses22 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage1d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day153.0
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $92 $91 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$18 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 21 $16 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 21 $14 +$20 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$11 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 21 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$16 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 21 $12 +$13 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$21 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 21 $30 +$23 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 21 $24 −$23 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 21 $12 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 21 $22 −$6 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$8 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 21 $19 +$19 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$20 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $21 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 21 $24 −$23 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 21 $14 −$9 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 21 $6 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$21 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 21 $12 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 -6%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$12 +119%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$9 -35%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $16 −$15 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$6 +62%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$2 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 21 $16 +$26 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 21 $25 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $92 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $44 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $26 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.37 · official $91.37 (match) · 164 history records