Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:22:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3a59…6c6f world 122 markets active 1h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,927 (-5%) realized −$549 · open −$2,378
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate65%48W / 26L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$443per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$14,322now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$117
7 days−$4,677
14 days−$4,661
30 days−$2,229
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 83% −$4,027
finance 9% +$608
other 6% −$5
crypto 2% −$9
tech 1% −$3
politics 0% +$20
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -11.6% -20.1% 54% 12% -42.5%
≤30d 41 -3.7% -12.8% 63% 24% -16.3%
≤90d 74 +0.2% -9.3% 65% 34% -12.1%
all 74 +0.2% -9.3% 65% 34% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 34% -12.1%
10% -18.0% 19% -20.5%
15% -25.9% 12% -28.2%
20% -33.2% 9% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$572) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$219 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$14,322
Realized−$549
Unrealized−$2,378
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses48 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Open positions48
Markets (closed)74 / 122
History coverage74d
Avg bet$443
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 48 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 47¢ 44¢ $1,838 $1,740 −$98 (-5%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 72¢ 44¢ $2,793 $1,725 −$1,068 (-38%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 81¢ 87¢ $1,309 $1,414 +$105 (+8%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 80¢ 81¢ $835 $853 +$19 (+2%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 78¢ 86¢ $756 $840 +$84 (+11%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 63¢ 70¢ $748 $836 +$88 (+12%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? No 73¢ 40¢ $1,164 $626 −$538 (-46%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 70¢ 63¢ $520 $468 −$53 (-10%)
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? No 82¢ 82¢ $425 $428 +$3 (+1%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 61¢ 36¢ $707 $414 −$292 (-41%)
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $402 $404 +$1 (+0%)
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? No 91¢ 89¢ $409 $401 −$9 (-2%)
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? No 89¢ 86¢ $409 $395 −$14 (-4%)
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? No 84¢ 87¢ $375 $387 +$12 (+3%)
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? No 91¢ 84¢ $409 $379 −$30 (-7%)
US x China Military clash before 2027? No 94¢ 92¢ $374 $367 −$7 (-2%)
China x Japan military clash before 2027? No 94¢ 91¢ $374 $363 −$11 (-3%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 79¢ 76¢ $377 $362 −$15 (-4%)
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? No 88¢ 87¢ $276 $273 −$3 (-1%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 35¢ 20¢ $434 $244 −$189 (-44%)
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? No 40¢ 96¢ $89 $211 +$122 (+138%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 84¢ $220 $202 −$18 (-8%)
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 37¢ 34¢ $209 $196 −$13 (-6%)
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? No 86¢ 83¢ $175 $170 −$5 (-3%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $120 $120 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Jun 17 $715 +$13 +2%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Jun 17 $602 +$4 +1%
Israel military action on Damascus by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $114 −$3 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 15 $791 +$11 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $577 +$74 +13%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $48 +$1 +1%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $417 +$17 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 15 $1,097 −$1,097 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $3,345 −$3,345 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $60 −$1 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? Jun 14 $19 +$1 +3%
Will China blockade Taiwan by in 2026? Jun 14 $365 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $37 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Jun 13 $520 +$76 +15%
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 3 Jun 13 $439 +$9 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $1,935 +$258 +13%
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? Jun 13 $482 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? Jun 13 $19 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 13 $37 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $75 +$3 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 12 $628 −$628 -100%
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? Jun 12 $97 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 11 $40 −$7 -19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $362 −$61 -17%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $400 +$2 +1%
Will US annex any territory in 2026? Jun 08 $346 −$9 -3%
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Jun 08 $345 +$12 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $200 +$11 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $5,387 +$1,254 +23%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? Jun 01 $2,045 +$411 +20%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? May 30 $1,414 −$9 -1%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 29 $1,435 +$263 +18%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $942 +$53 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 28 $692 +$152 +22%
US x Denmark Military clash before 2027? May 25 $100 −$3 -3%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 25 $1,649 +$181 +11%
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormu May 24 $240 −$7 -3%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 24 $223 +$28 +12%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $572 +$23 +4%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? May 24 $120 +$1 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $750 +$87 +12%
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? May 06 $120 +$1 +1%
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? May 06 $120 +$2 +2%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 06 $120 +$1 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 06 $120 +$1 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 06 $120 +$3 +2%
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait o May 04 $320 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 02 $250 +$75 +30%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 02 $354 +$107 +30%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 02 $354 +$173 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $276 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $276 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 54¢ $276 1h
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormu BUY No 90¢ $55 1h
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY No 86¢ $55 1h
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY No 87¢ $55 1h
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY No 83¢ $55 1h
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of BUY Yes 36¢ $55 1h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 63¢ $69 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 43¢ $69 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 19¢ $69 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 77¢ $69 1h
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? SELL No 88¢ $663 1h
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $606 1h
Israel military action on Damascus by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $111 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 38¢ $364 36h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $91 36h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 53¢ $91 36h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 34¢ $91 36h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 78¢ $91 36h
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormu BUY No 82¢ $73 36h
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY No 87¢ $73 36h
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY No 87¢ $73 36h
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY No 84¢ $73 36h
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of BUY Yes 38¢ $73 36h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY No 61¢ $182 36h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $182 36h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $740 36h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $651 36h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $48 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14,322.29 · official $14,275.58 (match) · 570 history records