Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:40:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3A
0x3a59…c2b6
culture · 626 markets active 2h ago
0.5score
+$1,636 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,601 · open +$20
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,348
Realized+$1,601
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses524 / 66
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions36
Markets (closed)590 / 626
History coverage126d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day24.3
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit52%
Chart Positions 36 History 590 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$70
7 days+$73
14 days+$206
30 days+$341
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? No 96¢ 99¢ $150 $154 +$4 (+3%)
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? Yes 87¢ 84¢ $120 $116 −$5 (-4%)
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 22 be between 85 and 90? Yes 93¢ 96¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will "The Murder of Rachel Nickell" be the top US Netflix movie this week? No 92¢ 100¢ $83 $90 +$7 (+8%)
Will "Piece by Piece" be the top global Netflix movie this week? No 97¢ 100¢ $75 $77 +$2 (+3%)
Will "David" be the top global Netflix movie this week? No 98¢ 100¢ $74 $75 +$1 (+2%)
Will MrBeast hit 500 million subscribers by June 30? Yes 94¢ 100¢ $66 $70 +$4 (+6%)
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? No 97¢ 99¢ $67 $69 +$2 (+2%)
Will "Lawmen: Bass Reeves" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? No 97¢ 100¢ $48 $50 +$1 (+3%)
Will "Raw (June 8, 2026)" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? No 97¢ 99¢ $48 $50 +$1 (+2%)
Will "Raw (June 8, 2026)" be the top US Netflix show this week? No 97¢ 99¢ $48 $50 +$1 (+2%)
Will "Piece by Piece" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? No 97¢ 96¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Will "GOAT" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? No 97¢ 96¢ $48 $48 −$1 (-1%)
Will "The Four Seasons: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this week? No 99¢ 99¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+0%)
Will "Raw (June 8, 2026)" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? No 96¢ 99¢ $36 $37 +$1 (+3%)
Will Noah Kahan have a #1 hit in the US in June? No 75¢ 97¢ $22 $29 +$7 (+30%)
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 22 be between 80 and 85? No 99¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will there be at least 2150 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026? Yes 40¢ 62¢ $16 $25 +$9 (+55%)
Will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 98¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+4%)
Will "Hit The Wall - Gracie Abrams" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? No 99¢ 100¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+1%)
Will "David" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? No 95¢ 97¢ $21 $22 +$1 (+2%)
Will "The Cure - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Gracie Abrams have a #1 hit in June? No 91¢ 76¢ $22 $19 −$4 (-16%)
Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Yes 57¢ 37¢ $26 $17 −$9 (-35%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 74¢ 81¢ $15 $16 +$2 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this Jun 12 $6 +$15 +250%
Will MrBeast hit 129 billion views by June 30? Jun 12 $120 −$12 -10%
Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the #1 song on Jun 11 $39 +$62 +158%
Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 Jun 11 $13 −$2 -13%
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Jun 11 $103 +$7 +6%
Will "David" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Will "GOAT" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 10 $77 −$77 -100%
Will "Ladies First" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Will "A Perfect Getaway" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 09 $116 +$1 +1%
Will "Swapped" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 09 $254 +$2 +1%
Will "GOAT" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? Jun 09 $49 +$1 +2%
Will "The Crash" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? Jun 09 $130 +$3 +2%
Will "The Murder of Rachel Nickell" be the #2 global Netflix movie thi Jun 09 $67 +$3 +4%
Will "Swapped" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? Jun 09 $29 +$1 +2%
Will "David" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? Jun 09 $27 +$3 +10%
Will "David" be the top global Netflix movie this week? Jun 09 $15 $0 +1%
Will "Cleaner" be the top global Netflix movie this week? Jun 09 $13 $0 +1%
Will "AFI Life Achievement Award: A Tribute to Eddie Murphy" be the #2 Jun 09 $15 $0 +1%
Will "Worst Ex Ever: Season 2" be the #2 global Netflix show this week Jun 09 $5 $0 +1%
Will "Lawmen: Bass Reeves" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? Jun 09 $15 $0 +1%
Will "Lawmen: Bass Reeves" be the top US Netflix show this week? Jun 09 $149 +$2 +1%
Will "AFI Life Achievement Award: A Tribute to Eddie Murphy" be the to Jun 09 $148 +$2 +1%
Will "Nemesis" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? Jun 09 $29 +$1 +3%
Will "The Boroughs" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? Jun 09 $5 $0 +1%
Will "Worst Ex Ever: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this wee Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will "AFI Life Achievement Award: A Tribute to Eddie Murphy" be the to Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top global Netflix show thi Jun 09 $29 +$1 +4%
Will "David" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 09 $15 $0 +1%
Will MrBeast hit 128 billion views by June 30? Jun 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Will "Babydoll - Dominic Fike" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? Jun 07 $22 $0 +1%
Will Taylor Swift have a #1 hit in the US in June? Jun 07 $11 −$3 -31%
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Jun 05 $418 +$71 +17%
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 21 be betwe Jun 05 $91 +$2 +2%
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 21 be betwe Jun 05 $171 +$19 +11%
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 21 be at le Jun 05 $27 +$1 +4%
Will Taylor Swift have a #1 hit in June? Jun 05 $28 +$7 +24%
Will Bolivia replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $1 $0 -50%
Will Ariana Grande have a #1 hit in June? Jun 04 $198 +$2 +1%
Will Ariana Grande have a #1 hit in the US in June? Jun 04 $59 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast hit 497 million subscribers by June 30? Jun 03 $118 $0 +0%
Will "The Four Seasons: Season 2" be the #2 global Netflix show this w Jun 02 $6 −$6 -100%
Will "The Roast of Kevin Hart" be the #2 global Netflix show this week Jun 02 $10 $0 +1%
Will "Ladies First" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? Jun 02 $29 $0 +2%
Will "Worst Ex Ever: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this wee Jun 02 $14 $0 +1%
Will "Remarkably Bright Creatures" be the #2 global Netflix movie this Jun 02 $5 $0 +1%
Will "Stolen Baby: The Murder of Heidi Broussard" be the top global Ne Jun 02 $17 $0 +1%
Will "The Crash" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? Jun 02 $29 +$1 +4%
Will "AFI Life Achievement Award: A Tribute to Eddie Murphy" be the #2 Jun 02 $25 $0 +1%
Will "Remarkably Bright Creatures" be the top global Netflix movie thi Jun 02 $49 +$1 +2%
Will "Ladies First" be the top global Netflix movie this week? Jun 02 $69 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 53% +$657
culture 41% +$792
politics 5% +$23
world 1% +$6
sports 1% +$143
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on US Spoti SELL Yes 85¢ $20 1h
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on US Spoti SELL Yes 85¢ $2 3h
Will "The Crash" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? BUY No 99¢ $5 3h
Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the #1 song on BUY No 100¢ $70 4h
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this SELL No 86¢ $21 8h
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on Spotify SELL No 100¢ $2 27h
Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the #1 song on SELL Yes 100¢ $16 27h
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on Spotify SELL No 100¢ $2 28h
Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 SELL No 90¢ $9 31h
Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the #1 song on SELL Yes 99¢ $75 33h
Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the #1 song on SELL Yes 100¢ $10 33h
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $0 38h
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $13 38h
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this BUY No 24¢ $6 41h
Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the #1 song on BUY No 92¢ $12 41h
Will "The Four Seasons: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this BUY No 99¢ $42 42h
Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the #1 song on BUY No 92¢ $34 42h
Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the #1 song on BUY No 95¢ $19 42h
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this BUY No 25¢ $0 42h
Will "The Murder of Rachel Nickell" be the top US Netflix movie this w BUY No 91¢ $44 42h
Will there be at least 2150 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 40¢ $14 43h
Will "The Murder of Rachel Nickell" be the top US Netflix movie this w BUY No 91¢ $2 45h
Will "The Murder of Rachel Nickell" be the top US Netflix movie this w BUY No 93¢ $28 45h
Will "The Murder of Rachel Nickell" be the top US Netflix movie this w BUY No 94¢ $10 46h
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on Spotify BUY No 96¢ $9 2d
Will "David" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? BUY No 95¢ $21 2d
Will there be at least 2150 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 40¢ $2 2d
Will "Piece by Piece" be the top global Netflix movie this week? BUY No 98¢ $32 2d
Will "David" be the top global Netflix movie this week? BUY No 98¢ $74 2d
Will "Raw (June 8, 2026)" be the top US Netflix show this week? BUY No 97¢ $49 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)+3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +1.0% -8.6% 80% 11% -6.6%
≤30d 145 +12.7% +1.9% 90% 13% -6.2%
≤90d 471 +16.6% +5.5% 89% 16% -6.4%
all 590 +14.9% +3.9% 89% 19% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover24.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.9% 19% -5.7%
10% ← realistic here -6.0% 12% -14.7%
15% -15.1% 7% -23.0%
20% -23.4% 6% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,347.79 · official $1,347.79 (match) · 3500 history records