Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:45:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3A 0x3a5a…3427 sports 675 markets active 0h ago coverage 40d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 39d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (75 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$6,155 (+17%) realized +$5,784 · open +$371
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +63% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip
Net edge+26%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate55%459W / 369L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day75.4pace
Fees−$333est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$2,875now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 40d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$530
other 17% +$474
politics 7% −$1
world 3% +$70
finance 1% +$7
crypto 0% −$1
tech 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (75 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+47.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 297 +92.3% +74.0% 27% 25% -17.5%
≤30d 671 +77.8% +60.9% 50% 33% -10.6%
≤90d 828 +63.1% +47.6% 55% 32% -9.0%
all 828 +63.1% +47.6% 55% 32% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover75.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +47.6% 32% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here +33.5% 14% -17.7%
15% +20.6% 10% -25.6%
20% +8.7% 8% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +63% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +128% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$12 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$2,875
Realized+$5,784
Unrealized+$371
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses459 / 369
Est. fees paid−$333
Open positions109
Markets (closed)828 / 675
History coverage40d ⚠
Avg bet$54
Trades / day75.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 109 History 828 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 5¢ 9¢ $193 $351 +$158 (+82%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $80 $203 +$123 (+154%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 13¢ $211 $182 −$29 (-14%)
Spain snap election called in 2026? No 61¢ 64¢ $168 $175 +$8 (+5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $152 $166 +$14 (+9%)
Will Vinícius Júnior win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $60 $126 +$67 (+111%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $130 $125 −$5 (-4%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 64¢ 86¢ $89 $121 +$32 (+36%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Under 83¢ 99¢ $83 $99 +$16 (+19%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 76¢ 76¢ $88 $88 +$0 (+0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $80 $85 +$5 (+6%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 28¢ 24¢ $78 $68 −$10 (-12%)
Will Pedri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $29 $59 +$31 (+108%)
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? Yes 53¢ 70¢ $37 $49 +$12 (+33%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 19¢ 30¢ $29 $46 +$17 (+57%)
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $28 $45 +$17 (+60%)
Will Vitinha win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $67 $44 −$23 (-34%)
Will Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary General of the United Nations? No 59¢ 57¢ $41 $40 −$1 (-3%)
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $27 $38 +$10 (+39%)
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $32 $35 +$3 (+9%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 69¢ $29 $35 +$6 (+20%)
Blue wave in 2026? Yes 74¢ 73¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $34 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Will Declan Rice win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+6%)
Japan recession in 2026? Yes 43¢ 26¢ $52 $31 −$20 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 298 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
WIll Lamine Yamal play in the World Cup? Jun 17 $0 +$15 +4881%
Will a Democrat win North Carolina Presidential Election? Jun 17 $0 −$8 -16796%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-12-13? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
CF Estrela da Amadora vs. Gil Vicente FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1 +$24 +2949%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Mali win on 2025-12-22? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Doctors Without Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières) win the Nobel Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2025 French Open? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Nothing Ever Happens: Israel Edition Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Girona FC vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $9 −$36 -421%
Will Zohran Mamdani get between 55% and 60% of the vote in the 2025 NY Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Russia capture Hryshyne by March 31, 2026? Jun 17 $0 −$27 -7354%
Will FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-12-05? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow for Treasury Secretary? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2025-12-11? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
US recession in 2025? Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1054%
Will Arsenal win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 17 $5 −$3 -69%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 7? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will André Ventura win the first round by at least 4%? Jun 17 $0 −$6 -12496%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 8? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Argentina by November 30? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2025-12-20? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by April 30? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Moreirense FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $15 −$31 -216%
Will Cruzeiro EC vs. Coritiba FBC end in a draw? Jun 17 $0 $0 +194%
Will Torino FC vs. Cagliari Calcio end in a draw? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-11-08? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Jim Hopper die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World C Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by April 30? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump nominate Robert O'Brien for Secretary of State? Jun 17 $0 −$3 -643%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on November 12? Jun 17 $5 −$4 -91%
Al Shabab Saudi Club vs. Al Nassr Saudi Club: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $3 −$46 -1357%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 24? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
CA Osasuna vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $0 +$23 +14487%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Luigi Mangione rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 202 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 20–30%? Jun 17 $4 −$7 -186%
CA Lanús vs. CA Boca Juniors: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $0 −$107 -32964%
Will Trump post "FBI" on Truth Social this week? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Jonas Vingegaard win the Tour de France 2025? Jun 17 $0 +$6 +4806%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on November 7? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jun 17 $1 −$4 -414%
Will Mauricio Pochettino be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Israel announces ceasefire by Sunday? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Jerome Powell federally charged by August 31? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 55¢ $28 6m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 86¢ $43 25m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 86¢ $4 26m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 86¢ $20 26m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 83¢ $83 27m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 86¢ $19 27m
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Ronaldo 17¢ $2 47m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 81¢ $60 54m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 81¢ $21 54m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 90¢ $45 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 85¢ $42 1h
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 51¢ $33 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 59¢ $25 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 59¢ $1 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 59¢ $15 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 9¢ $9 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 73¢ $73 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 55¢ $38 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 23¢ $23 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 46¢ $9 2h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 75¢ $38 4h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $39 5h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 76¢ $50 5h
Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 5h
Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 5h
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 5h
Will Declan Rice win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5h
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 5h
Will Declan Rice win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 5h
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,874.77 · official $2,876.52 (match) · 3500 history records