Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:26:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3A 0x3a5d…d936 other 73 markets active 1d ago coverage 621d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$128 (+1%) realized +$128 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate21%15W / 56L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$315per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days+$6
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 60% −$13
other 20% +$21
politics 12% −$9
tech 3% −$1
culture 2% −$1
sports 1% +$129
crypto 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -20.1% -27.7% 0% 0% -11.7%
≤30d 17 -1.3% -10.7% 12% 6% -9.1%
≤90d 56 +6.0% -4.1% 20% 14% -7.7%
all 71 +5.2% -4.9% 21% 13% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 13% -9.0%
10% -14.0% 13% -17.7%
15% -22.3% 13% -25.7%
20% -29.9% 13% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$1 · ×9.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.57 per $1 lost it wins $2.57
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

621d coverage
Net worth$198
Realized+$128
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses15 / 56
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)71 / 73
History coverage621d
Avg bet$315
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 99¢ $142 $141 −$0 (-0%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $57 $57 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $83 $0 -0%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $42 $0 -0%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $36 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $34 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $243 $0 -0%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $13 +$11 +79%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $36 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $239 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $38 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $32 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $32 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in May? Jun 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $38 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $63 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $32 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $27 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 18 $220 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 18 $207 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 11 $198 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $215 $0 -0%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 07 $221 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $201 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $199 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $222 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 25 $210 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $209 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $211 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $216 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $218 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April? Apr 24 $203 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $211 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 23 $216 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $214 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 22 $214 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $208 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $220 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 16 $223 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 15 $206 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $225 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $220 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 14 $225 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 13 $210 $0 -0%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 10 $14 +$9 +62%
Bucks vs. Nets Apr 08 $8 +$10 +124%
Predators vs. Kings Apr 07 $9 +$6 +75%
Bruins vs. Panthers Apr 06 $19 −$19 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $41 27h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $41 29h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 47h
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $42 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $4 2d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $42 2d
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $36 3d
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $36 3d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $33 3d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $34 3d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $142 6d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $27 8d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 9d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $42 9d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $42 9d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY New York Yankees 55¢ $13 11d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 11d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 11d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $34 14d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $34 15d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $38 16d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 16d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $32 16d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 17d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $32 17d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $32 17d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 18d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 19d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $30 19d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $30 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.06 · official $198.06 (match) · 312 history records