Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:49:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
3A 0x3a5f…ce01 other 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 714d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$15,169 (-21%) realized −$15,169 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate53%18W / 16L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,091per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,081
7 days+$3,886
14 days+$2,685
30 days+$4,163
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$17,992
sports 22% +$846
crypto 4% +$2,577
world 3% +$1,028
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +38.4% +25.3% 80% 80% +16.9%
≤30d 10 +26.0% +14.0% 70% 70% +5.9%
≤90d 15 +9.4% -1.0% 60% 60% -10.7%
all 34 -15.2% -23.3% 53% 50% -28.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.3% 50% -28.1%
10% -30.6% 44% -35.0%
15% -37.3% 38% -41.2%
20% -43.5% 24% -47.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$2,762) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -36% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,002 vs −$1,974 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

714d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15,169
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses18 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage714d
Avg bet$2,091
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $3,093 +$1,914 +62%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3,027 −$3,000 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $4,139 +$1,978 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,947 +$2,190 +112%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,149 +$805 +70%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3,750 −$3,714 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,978 +$1,772 +90%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1,299 −$1,299 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,794 +$2,039 +114%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $2,285 +$1,478 +65%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $2,487 −$2,458 -99%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $2,996 −$2,966 -99%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $531 −$28 -5%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $1,283 +$640 +50%
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $647 +$237 +37%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $3,324 −$3,314 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $2,296 +$1,028 +45%
Will Slovakia win on 2025-11-17? Nov 17 $580 −$580 -100%
Klarna IPO in 2025? Sep 02 $1,164 +$145 +12%
Will Celtic win on 2025-08-26? Aug 26 $2,135 −$2,135 -100%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-08-17? Aug 17 $268 −$268 -100%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 13 $6,127 −$1,271 -21%
Wimbledon: Sabalenka vs. Anisimova (W) Jul 11 $2,762 −$2,762 -100%
FIFA Club World Cup: PSG vs. Real Madrid (To Advance) Jul 10 $1,004 +$697 +69%
Wimbledon: Sinner vs. Shelton Jul 09 $1,102 −$1,102 -100%
Wimbledon: Sabalenka vs. Siegemund Jul 08 $1,128 +$73 +6%
Wimbledon: Sinner vs. Dimitrov Jul 07 $3,427 +$937 +27%
Wimbledon: De Minaur vs. Djokovic Jul 07 $2,420 +$1,076 +44%
Wimbledon: Rublev vs. Alcaraz Jul 06 $2,069 +$429 +21%
Will Vinicius Jr win the Ballon D’Or? Jul 06 $2,043 −$2,043 -100%
Will Man City win on 2024-10-20? Oct 20 $1,743 +$579 +33%
Will Novak Djokovic win Wimbledon Men's? Oct 20 $1,524 −$1,524 -100%
Will Manchester City beat Newcastle? Oct 20 $3,115 −$3,115 -100%
Spain vs. France - Who will advance? Jul 10 $24 +$20 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $5,007 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 61¢ $3,093 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $3,027 26h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $4,139 46h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 70¢ $4,137 47h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 32¢ $1,947 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,954 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,149 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $3,750 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 52¢ $1,978 8d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 57¢ $1,299 8d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 70¢ $2,523 9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,833 9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $1,794 10d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 60¢ $1,273 15d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 60¢ $1,012 15d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $2,487 34d
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 47¢ $485 36d
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $2,512 36d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $503 37d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $531 37d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? SELL Yes 85¢ $1,923 37d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $396 37d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $887 37d
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-05-16? SELL No 87¢ $884 37d
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-05-16? BUY No 63¢ $647 37d
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-03-21? BUY Yes 76¢ $3,324 93d
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-03-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,324 93d
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-03-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $2,296 93d
Will Slovakia win on 2025-11-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $580 217d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 154 history records