Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:42:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3A
0x3a62…3df0
other · 84 markets active 0h ago
1.0score
+$256 +9%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$268 · open −$12
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,332
Realized+$268
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses16 / 29
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions39
Markets (closed)45 / 84
History coverage7d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day45.3
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit50%
Chart Positions 39 History 45 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$280
7 days+$268
14 days+$268
30 days+$268
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $339 $327 −$12 (-3%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $225 $224 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $208 $209 +$1 (+1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $207 $207 −$1 (-0%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $48 $47 −$1 (-3%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $38 $36 −$2 (-6%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 80¢ 77¢ $22 $22 −$1 (-4%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $21 $20 −$1 (-4%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? No 80¢ 80¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 22¢ 24¢ $10 $10 +$1 (+7%)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 59¢ 57¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 34¢ 30¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-13%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 68¢ 96¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+41%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 89¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Ilkley: Tatiana Prozorova vs Sinja Kraus Tatiana Prozorova 62¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+61%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 83¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 84¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $2 $0 -10%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $2 $0 -9%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $14 +$2 +12%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $7 +$2 +35%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 $0 -12%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $146 +$66 +45%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $131 −$23 -18%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $5 +$28 +586%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $44 −$33 -74%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +163%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $7 $0 -2%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 2 Czechia? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -89%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $840 +$311 +37%
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $4 +$2 +67%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $16 −$12 -76%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $5 −$2 -37%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 South Africa? Jun 11 $5 −$4 -76%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 −$19 -97%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $19 −$19 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Ilkley (Doubles): Harrison/Osborne vs Kuwata/Sawangkaew Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $4 $0 -3%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $3 +$2 +43%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $4 −$2 -64%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $5 −$2 -46%
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Jun 10 $4 $0 -6%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $35 $0 -1%
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on US Spoti Jun 10 $3 −$1 -40%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $34 +$6 +18%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $5 +$1 +26%
Will Montedio Yamagata win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $5 +$2 +48%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $10 −$5 -49%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,600 on June 7? Jun 07 $3 −$2 -78%
Will Cyprus win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Iwaki FC win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $4 −$4 -98%
Armenia vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $5 +$3 +67%
Will Ethiopia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $3 +$3 +134%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $10 +$3 +34%
Romania vs. Wales: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Will FC Tōkyō win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 85% +$311
sports 9% −$62
economics 2% $0
crypto 2% +$6
world 1% +$1
politics 0% +$2
tech 0% $0
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 27m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $49 28m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 28m
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 28m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 28m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 28m
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $24 28m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 30m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 31m
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 31m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 33m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 34m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 39m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Monte 61¢ $13 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 46¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Monte 20¢ $1 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $11 1h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 37¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Monte 32¢ $2 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $49 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 28¢ $2 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $4 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 83¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FURIA 99¢ $8 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 3h
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 BUY Over 76¢ $4 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 11¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -14.0% -22.2% 36% 31% +9.2%
≤30d 45 -14.0% -22.2% 36% 31% +9.2%
≤90d 45 -14.0% -22.2% 36% 31% +9.2%
all 45 -14.0% -22.2% 36% 31% +9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover45.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.2% 31% +9.2%
10% ← realistic here -29.6% 27% -1.2%
15% -36.4% 20% -10.8%
20% -42.6% 11% -19.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,331.60 · official $1,331.47 (match) · 324 history records