Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:03:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3a64…bd13 crypto 123 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (123 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$82 (-10%) realized −$86 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate72%88W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day123.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$97
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (123 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 122 -13.6% -21.8% 72% 60% -21.0%
≤30d 122 -13.6% -21.8% 72% 60% -21.0%
≤90d 122 -13.6% -21.8% 72% 60% -21.0%
all 122 -13.6% -21.8% 72% 60% -21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover123.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.8% 60% -21.0%
10% ← realistic here -29.3% 22% -28.5%
15% -36.1% 7% -35.4%
20% -42.4% 1% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$86
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses88 / 34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)122 / 123
History coverage1d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day123.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Up 0¢ 46¢ $0 $4 +$4 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +40%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +40%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $7 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $6 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $7 5m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $7 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $7 15m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $6 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $7 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $7 29m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $7 33m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 38m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $7 39m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $6 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $7 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $7 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $7 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $7 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $6 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $7 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $7 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $6 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $7 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $7 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $7 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $6 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $7 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $7 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $6 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $6 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.64 · official $3.80 (match) · 211 history records