Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:46:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3a6e…9bc5 sports 900 markets active 0h ago coverage 37d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 36d only
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,524 (-4%) realized −$1,523 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate62%555W / 343L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day53.3pace
Fees−$193est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$49
7 days−$67
14 days−$207
30 days−$782
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$1,014
crypto 30% −$692
other 17% −$760
world 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 196 -6.3% -15.2% 74% 58% -20.1%
≤30d 508 -5.3% -14.3% 60% 47% -14.6%
≤90d 898 -5.0% -14.1% 62% 53% -15.5%
all 898 -5.0% -14.1% 62% 53% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.1% 53% -15.5%
10% ← realistic here -22.3% 40% -23.6%
15% -29.8% 28% -31.0%
20% -36.7% 16% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$32 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$1,523
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses555 / 343
Est. fees paid−$193
Open positions2
Markets (closed)898 / 900
History coverage37d ⚠
Avg bet$41
Trades / day53.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 898 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Down 76¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+31%)
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Up 73¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +36%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +18%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +14%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +31%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +20%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +19%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +28%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +22%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +14%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +14%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +14%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +23%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +25%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +13%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +20%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +25%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +18%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +25%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +12%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +10%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +13%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +15%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +12%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +10%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +14%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +12%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +25%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +19%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +10%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +13%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +29%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +23%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $2 3m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 4m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 9m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 14m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 19m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 29m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 29m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $2 39m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 43m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 43m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $2 54m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 59m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.63 · official $3.26 (match) · 3500 history records