Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:23:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3a70…76b5 sports 434 markets active 4h ago coverage 39d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 38d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (88 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,889 (+2%) realized +$2,889 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate46%229W / 266L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$289per market
Trades / day88.1pace
Fees−$1,467est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$3,719
other 28% −$1,240
crypto 11% −$1,199
weather 1% −$321
finance 0% −$53
politics 0% $0
culture 0% −$10
tech 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (88 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 113 -59.7% -63.6% 22% 21% -25.6%
≤30d 312 -16.5% -24.5% 42% 32% -9.5%
≤90d 495 -11.6% -20.0% 46% 35% -9.0%
all 495 -11.6% -20.0% 46% 35% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover88.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.0% 35% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -27.6% 31% -17.7%
15% -34.6% 28% -25.7%
20% -41.0% 22% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$117 vs −$102 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,889
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses229 / 266
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$1,467
Open positions0
Markets (closed)495 / 434
History coverage39d ⚠
Avg bet$289
Trades / day88.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 495 Trades
no open positions (168 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on May 12? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 63¢ $67 3h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $93 4h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Minnesota Lynx 99¢ $340 4h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Minnesota Lynx 99¢ $19 4h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Minnesota Lynx 49¢ $31 5h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Minnesota Lynx 52¢ $15 6h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Minnesota Lynx 52¢ $28 6h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Minnesota Lynx 52¢ $9 6h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Minnesota Lynx 55¢ $110 6h
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty SELL Washington Mystics 99¢ $7 6h
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty SELL Washington Mystics 95¢ $19 6h
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty SELL Washington Mystics 95¢ $28 6h
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty SELL Washington Mystics 95¢ $132 6h
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty BUY Washington Mystics 36¢ $71 7h
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Nick Hardt SELL Nick Hardt 68¢ $67 9h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 AND Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY 66¢ $242 10h
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 56¢ $56 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $11 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $8 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 10h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $102 11h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 11¢ $6 27h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 11¢ $1 27h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 11¢ $4 27h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 98¢ $303 28h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 98¢ $25 28h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 98¢ $1 29h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 98¢ $1 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records