Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:51:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
3A 0x3a72…bcf2 sports 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$111 (+49%) realized +$111 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +66% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +38% what you keep after slip
Net edge+38%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%12W / 4L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$55
other 35% +$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+50.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +65.7% +50.0% 75% 75% +42.6%
≤30d 16 +65.7% +50.0% 75% 75% +42.6%
≤90d 16 +65.7% +50.0% 75% 75% +42.6%
all 16 +65.7% +50.0% 75% 75% +42.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +50.0% 75% +42.6%
10% +35.6% 75% +28.9%
15% +22.5% 75% +16.5%
20% +10.5% 62% +5.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +58% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +66% · $-wt +58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +114% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$6 · ×1.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.85 per $1 lost it wins $5.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$111
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses12 / 4
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 21
History coverage3d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$23 +226%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 +$7 +68%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 $0 -2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$11 +55%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 14 $20 +$19 +93%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 13 $41 +$15 +38%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $4 +$6 +158%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 +$5 +50%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5 +$7 +146%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 +$8 +250%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $11 +$8 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $17 8h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 58¢ $10 9h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 SELL Under 41¢ $10 13h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 14h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Under 41¢ $10 14h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Corners BUY Over 59¢ $10 14h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 16h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 54¢ $10 19h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 13¢ $5 20h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $2 20h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 2.5 Corners SELL Over 48¢ $17 38h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a BUY 10¢ $5 39h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 40h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 51¢ $20 40h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 51¢ $20 40h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 55¢ $20 41h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 33¢ $10 44h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Wi BUY 24¢ $5 44h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 32¢ $10 44h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $1 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 AND Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: BUY 10¢ $2 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $10 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $5 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $4 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 38 history records