Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:09:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3a72…c2a0 sports 1500 markets active 2h ago coverage 211d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$363 (-1%) realized −$305 · open −$58
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate34%495W / 972L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day14.2pace
Fees−$121est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$57
7 days+$124
14 days+$596
30 days+$663
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$1,295
other 42% +$1,028
politics 3% −$15
world 1% +$122
finance 0% $0
crypto 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -2.0% -11.4% 37% 37% +2.3%
≤30d 160 +9.6% -0.8% 36% 36% +2.4%
≤90d 770 -11.0% -19.5% 27% 27% -18.5%
all 1467 +5.7% -4.4% 34% 33% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.4% 33% -9.8%
10% -13.5% 32% -18.5%
15% -21.9% 32% -26.3%
20% -29.6% 30% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$22 · ×1.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

211d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$305
Unrealized−$58
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses495 / 972
Est. fees paid−$121
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1467 / 1500
History coverage211d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day14.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1467 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $39 $24 −$15 (-39%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $32 $22 −$10 (-30%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 19¢ $30 $14 −$16 (-54%)
Haiti to score first vs. Brazil? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 496 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $30 −$30 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $33 −$32 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $9 −$9 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -97%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $12 −$12 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $8 +$2 +20%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $32 +$31 +96%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $18 −$18 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 +$7 +67%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $40 +$31 +79%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $9 −$9 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $38 −$37 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $31 −$31 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $45 +$51 +114%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 +$17 +165%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $40 +$49 +122%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $24 +$61 +260%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $17 −$17 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $30 +$68 +226%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $14 −$14 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $23 −$23 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $66 +$58 +88%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $37 −$36 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 +$43 +109%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $28 +$107 +388%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $19 +$86 +442%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $80 −$79 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$16 +79%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$27 +262%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $68 +$64 +95%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $37 −$4 -10%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $8 +$14 +172%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $32 −$31 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $31 +$69 +226%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $25 −$25 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $37 +$141 +382%
Will SC Recife win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $62 −$61 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $31 2h
Haiti to score first vs. Brazil? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 2h
Haiti to score first vs. Brazil? BUY Yes 11¢ $14 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $20 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 BUY Over 20¢ $20 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $14 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 21¢ $15 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $12 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 31¢ $3 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 BUY Over 20¢ $5 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 16¢ $9 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $14 2h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 4h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $12 5h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 98¢ $10 5h
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 82¢ $63 5h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $18 5h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 77¢ $17 5h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $71 5h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 81¢ $8 6h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 58¢ $12 6h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 45¢ $10 6h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $19 8h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 9h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 55¢ $20 9h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $20 9h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Arthur Fery 35¢ $9 9h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 35¢ $20 23h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $5 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.28 · official $58.45 · 3336 history records