Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:15:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3a74…24cf world 47 markets active 0h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$40 (-1%) realized −$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate28%13W / 34L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$1
14 days−$8
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$37
other 20% $0
sports 19% −$2
politics 18% −$1
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.5% -9.0% 43% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 30 -4.2% -13.3% 33% 0% -10.8%
≤90d 38 -2.8% -12.0% 32% 3% -10.6%
all 47 -2.3% -11.6% 28% 2% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 2% -10.1%
10% -20.1% 0% -18.7%
15% -27.8% 0% -26.5%
20% -34.9% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses13 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 47
History coverage99d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 47 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $66 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $59 +$2 +3%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 16 $117 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $58 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $66 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $66 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $21 $0 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $343 −$1 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $63 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $73 −$2 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $60 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $72 −$8 -10%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $174 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $134 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $219 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $67 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $68 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $125 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $63 +$4 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $63 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $135 −$26 -19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 27 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $100 −$6 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $38 +$1 +3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $90 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $192 −$2 -1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $11 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 23 $25 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 22 $96 −$1 -1%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $29 $0 -0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 19 $104 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 19 $78 $0 -0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 17 $71 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $70 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $94 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 16 $2 $0 +6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 16 $4 +$1 +14%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $103 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 15 $567 −$1 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 15 $19 $0 +0%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Mar 15 $38 −$1 -3%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 14 $570 −$2 -0%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 14 $16 $0 +0%
Will Man City win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 14 $565 $0 -0%
Will Jason Day win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 12 $19 $0 +0%
Will Adam Scott win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 12 $625 +$1 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 11 $568 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $66 2m
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $66 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $55 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $6 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $59 23h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $58 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $58 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $58 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 77¢ $65 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 78¢ $66 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $66 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $66 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $9 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $59 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $59 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $2 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $63 8d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $63 8d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 26¢ $14 9d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 26¢ $14 9d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $6 9d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $52 9d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $59 9d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $2 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 97¢ $60 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 97¢ $60 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $64 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 48¢ $72 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.14 · official $0.00 (match) · 167 history records