Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:17:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
3A 0x3a74…b263 politics 133 markets active 3h ago coverage 312d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable P/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,919 (+5%) realized +$4,348 · open −$2,429
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate51%66W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$313per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$31,487now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 312d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$3,613
other 26% −$44
politics 21% +$82
tech 1% −$293
sports 1% −$105
economics 1% −$6
finance 0% −$1
crypto 0% +$5
culture 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -11.9% -20.3% 0% 0% -20.3%
≤30d 1 -11.9% -20.3% 0% 0% -20.3%
≤90d 1 -11.9% -20.3% 0% 0% -20.3%
all 129 -4.1% -13.2% 51% 31% -27.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 31% -27.7%
10% -21.5% 27% -34.6%
15% -29.1% 20% -40.9%
20% -36.0% 14% -46.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% too few recent
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$35 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

312d coverage
Net worth$31,487
Realized+$4,348
Unrealized−$2,429
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses66 / 63
Open positions4
Markets (closed)129 / 133
History coverage312d
Avg bet$313
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 45¢ 38¢ $12,960 $10,766 −$2,194 (-17%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $9,840 $9,835 −$5 (-0%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $7,625 $7,615 −$10 (-0%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Yes 94¢ 88¢ $3,490 $3,271 −$220 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $3,659 −$435 -12%
Will Trump say "Washington" or "DC" during events with South Korean pr Jan 25 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Bernie Sanders say "Greed" 2+ times during Fighting Oligarchy spe Jan 25 $37 −$24 -67%
Will Bernie Sanders say "Putin" during Fighting Oligarchy speech on Au Jan 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Trump say "Putin" 5+ times during Zelensky events on August 18? Jan 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Will valid votes be between 5.8-6 million in Bolivia election? Jan 25 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Powell say "Summer" during Jackson Hole speech on August 22? Jan 25 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Powell say "Tariff" 5+ times during Jackson Hole speech on August Jan 25 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Bernie Sanders say "Vermont" during Fighting Oligarchy speech on Jan 25 $19 −$19 -100%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 25? Jan 25 $296 −$296 -100%
Will the 2025 Taiwanese referendum pass? Jan 25 $699 −$681 -98%
Will anyone say "Automotive" during the Q2 2025 Nvidia earnings call? Aug 26 $46 +$1 +2%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 26 $28 +$5 +19%
Will Carney visit Halifax by October 31? Aug 26 $26 −$2 -6%
Will anyone say "Production" during the Q2 2025 Nvidia earnings call? Aug 26 $10 $0 -1%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? Aug 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 26 $3 $0 -5%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Aug 26 $3 $0 +5%
Will Yoon be sentenced to prison in 2025? Aug 26 $4 $0 +6%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December Aug 26 $8 −$2 -19%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 26 $16 +$2 +15%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025? Aug 26 $26 −$15 -59%
Will TikTok be banned in 2025? Aug 26 $44 $0 +1%
Will anyone say "Hopper" during the Q2 2025 Nvidia earnings call? Aug 26 $46 $0 -1%
Will Trump say "Samsung" or "Hyundai" during events with South Korean Aug 25 $10 +$29 +298%
Will Trump say "LNG" or "Natural Gas" during events with South Korean Aug 25 $10 +$25 +242%
Will Trump say "Too Late" during events with South Korean president on Aug 25 $18 +$11 +63%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during e Aug 25 $9 +$30 +316%
Will Erna Solberg become the next Prime Minister of Norway? Aug 25 $10 +$2 +17%
Will Bernie Sanders say "Billionaire" 7+ times during Fighting Oligarc Aug 25 $29 +$21 +72%
Will Trump say "Japan" during events with South Korean president on Au Aug 25 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Ap win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary electio Aug 25 $17 −$1 -6%
Will Sylvi Listhaug become the next Prime Minister of Norway? Aug 25 $22 −$2 -10%
Trump x Elon talk by August 31? Aug 25 $46 +$2 +4%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31? Aug 25 $64 +$5 +7%
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in August? Aug 25 $18 +$2 +8%
Will Bernie Sanders say "Working Class" during Fighting Oligarchy spee Aug 25 $16 +$1 +6%
Will Bernie Sanders say "Trump" 12+ times during Fighting Oligarchy sp Aug 24 $34 −$7 -21%
Will Bernie Sanders say "Netanyahu" during Fighting Oligarchy speech o Aug 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 24 $4 +$1 +35%
Will Jonas Gahr Støre become the next Prime Minister of Norway? Aug 24 $35 −$1 -4%
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 24 $41 +$2 +6%
Israel strikes Yemen by August 31? Aug 24 $107 −$87 -81%
Will no leader be out in 2025? Aug 23 $18 +$6 +37%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 23 $22 −$1 -4%
Will MrBeast raise $40M for clean water by August 31? Aug 23 $20 −$7 -34%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30? Aug 23 $15 −$10 -69%
Will the ECB announce no change at the September meeting? Aug 23 $98 +$1 +1%
Will Powell say "Rate cut" during Jackson Hole speech on August 22? Aug 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Will anyone say "Inference" during the Q2 2025 Nvidia earnings call? Aug 22 $19 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $3,490 3h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 60¢ $1,849 3h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 58¢ $1,375 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 51¢ $6,313 3h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 67¢ $3,659 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 41¢ $6,647 3h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $9,845 3h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 99¢ $7,629 3h
Will anyone say "Automotive" during the Q2 2025 Nvidia earnings call? SELL Yes 94¢ $47 296d
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? SELL No 83¢ $33 296d
Will Carney visit Halifax by October 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $24 296d
Will anyone say "Production" during the Q2 2025 Nvidia earnings call? SELL Yes 90¢ $10 296d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? SELL No 80¢ $4 296d
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025? SELL No 58¢ $3 296d
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 SELL Yes 73¢ $4 296d
Will Yoon be sentenced to prison in 2025? SELL No 85¢ $4 296d
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December SELL Yes 13¢ $6 296d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 31¢ $19 296d
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025? SELL Yes 26¢ $10 296d
Will TikTok be banned in 2025? SELL No 89¢ $44 296d
Will anyone say "Hopper" during the Q2 2025 Nvidia earnings call? SELL Yes 92¢ $46 296d
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 25? BUY Yes 45¢ $72 296d
Will Trump say "Samsung" or "Hyundai" during events with South Korean SELL No 96¢ $38 296d
Will Trump say "LNG" or "Natural Gas" during events with South Korean SELL No 99¢ $35 296d
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 25? BUY Yes 45¢ $68 296d
Will Trump say "Too Late" during events with South Korean president on SELL No 99¢ $30 296d
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during e SELL No 100¢ $39 296d
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 25? BUY Yes 52¢ $8 296d
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 25? BUY Yes 57¢ $144 296d
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 25? BUY Yes 53¢ $4 296d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31,486.85 · official $31,597.85 (match) · 429 history records