Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:36:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3a7c…4abb other 150 markets active 2h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,742 (-1%) realized −$1,742 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate15%23W / 126L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,414per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$424now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$11
14 days−$20
30 days−$114
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$325
politics 34% −$80
sports 13% −$642
tech 2% $0
world 1% −$733
economics 1% −$10
culture 1% −$4
crypto 0% +$1
finance 0% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 33 -1.7% -11.1% 12% 3% -9.8%
≤90d 98 -2.2% -11.5% 7% 2% -9.7%
all 149 -5.1% -14.1% 15% 9% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 9% -10.3%
10% -22.3% 8% -18.9%
15% -29.8% 8% -26.7%
20% -36.7% 8% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,017) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -10% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$21 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$424
Realized−$1,742
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses23 / 126
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)149 / 150
History coverage131d
Avg bet$1,414
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 149 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $424 $424 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 23 $315 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 23 $4,128 −$4 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 22 $315 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $372 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $1,336 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $3,088 −$4 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $575 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $455 +$1 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $2,086 −$3 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $749 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $585 −$1 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 13 $327 +$2 +1%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,441 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $2,197 −$3 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $745 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $1,836 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1,830 −$2 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 08 $1,416 −$2 -0%
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $820 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 06 $633 −$1 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $41 +$60 +146%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $645 −$1 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 03 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,501 −$3 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,707 −$2 -0%
Will Solana reach $130 in May? Jun 02 $310 $0 +0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 01 $1,376 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $598 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $523 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $1,968 −$2 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $2,497 −$3 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $2,017 −$3 -0%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $47 +$25 +52%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $1,049 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 22 $1,037 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $1,040 −$2 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $1,326 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $5,425 −$6 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $1,443 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $2,832 −$3 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $3,852 −$4 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $2,722 −$3 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $1,322 −$2 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $2,489 −$3 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 09 $1,468 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $2,673 −$4 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 08 $1,340 −$2 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $3,751 −$4 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $1,347 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $424 1h
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $315 18h
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $315 21h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $374 23h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $374 24h
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $315 47h
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $315 2d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $372 3d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $372 3d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $483 4d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $484 4d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $423 5d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $424 5d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $574 5d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $575 6d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $759 7d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $760 7d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $748 8d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $749 8d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $584 10d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $585 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 99¢ $327 12d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $880 13d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $881 13d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $768 13d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $769 13d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $744 13d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $745 14d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $627 14d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $627 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $423.94 · official $423.94 (match) · 527 history records