Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:05:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
3A 0x3a81…0574 sports 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$125 (+21%) realized +$138 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +58% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip
Net edge+32%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%6W / 2L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day14.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$220now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$89
other 8% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+43.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +58.4% +43.3% 75% 75% +23.2%
≤30d 8 +58.4% +43.3% 75% 75% +23.2%
≤90d 8 +58.4% +43.3% 75% 75% +23.2%
all 8 +58.4% +43.3% 75% 75% +23.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +43.3% 75% +23.2%
10% +29.6% 75% +11.4%
15% +17.1% 75% +0.6%
20% +5.6% 50% -9.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +58% · $-wt +36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$44 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.53 per $1 lost it wins $2.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$220
Realized+$138
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses6 / 2
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day14.5
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Under 80¢ 97¢ $100 $121 +$21 (+21%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Over 76¢ 56¢ $133 $99 −$34 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $45 +$16 +36%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $91 +$82 +89%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $41 −$40 -98%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $45 +$18 +40%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $51 +$33 +65%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $12 +$45 +365%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $41 +$30 +73%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $49 −$48 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 80¢ $101 2h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 76¢ $134 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $62 3h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $173 3h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 73¢ $45 8h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 25¢ $41 8h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $91 8h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $45 22h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 22h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $57 22h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Cabo Verde 100¢ $70 22h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 57¢ $5 25h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $12 25h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 57¢ $35 25h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $13 28h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $35 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $219.54 · official $219.56 (match) · 18 history records