Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:35:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3A 0x3a83…195b other 191 markets active 2h ago coverage 344d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,695 (-5%) realized −$2,697 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate55%104W / 84L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$299per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$177now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$648
7 days+$1,091
14 days+$1,091
30 days+$1,091
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$2,599
sports 35% −$43
world 1% +$203
politics 0% −$7
crypto 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +33.4% +20.7% 71% 71% +27.3%
≤30d 17 +33.4% +20.7% 71% 71% +27.3%
≤90d 42 +3.8% -6.1% 55% 55% +7.4%
all 188 -2.1% -11.4% 55% 54% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 54% -12.4%
10% -19.9% 49% -20.7%
15% -27.6% 41% -28.4%
20% -34.7% 31% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$178 vs −$249 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

344d coverage
Net worth$177
Realized−$2,697
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses104 / 84
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions1
Markets (closed)188 / 191
History coverage344d
Avg bet$299
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 188 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $175 $177 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$20 +40%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $40 −$40 -99%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $97 +$200 +206%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $96 +$60 +62%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $292 +$408 +140%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $204 +$284 +140%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $24 −$24 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $484 −$257 -53%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $122 −$120 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $202 +$80 +40%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $201 +$65 +32%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $153 −$150 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $304 +$188 +62%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $203 +$223 +110%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $99 +$104 +105%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $69 +$30 +44%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $48 +$20 +42%
Pegula vs. Potapova: Match O/U 21.5 May 11 $100 −$99 -99%
Bengaluru 2: Alex Hernandez vs Yuta Kawahashi May 11 $11 −$11 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Frances Tiafoe vs Andrea Pellegrino May 11 $101 −$89 -89%
Andrey Rublev vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: Total Sets O/U 2.5 May 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $101 +$102 +101%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $76 −$65 -86%
Set Handicap: Potapova (-1.5) vs Samsonova (+1.5) May 10 $102 +$136 +134%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Learner Tien vs Alexander Bublik May 10 $71 −$70 -99%
Will New England Revolution win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $43 +$69 +158%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alexei Popyrin vs Jakub Mensik May 09 $51 −$50 -99%
Set Handicap: Mensik (-1.5) vs Popyrin (+1.5) May 09 $51 −$50 -98%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 09 $91 +$51 +56%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $58 +$36 +62%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Mariano Navone May 09 $202 −$200 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Cameron Norrie May 09 $101 −$100 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Tomas Machac vs Daniil Medvedev May 09 $56 −$3 -5%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Yannick Hanfmann vs Luciano Darderi May 09 $101 +$58 +57%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Sebastian Baez vs Alexander Bublik May 08 $203 +$101 +50%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Learner Tien vs Damir Dzumhur May 08 $106 +$81 +76%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alex de Minaur vs Matteo Arnaldi May 08 $101 −$100 -99%
Crystal Palace FC vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: Both Teams to Score May 08 $107 +$99 +93%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) May 07 $97 +$28 +29%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) May 06 $64 +$33 +52%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $38 −$37 -98%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-05? Mar 05 $153 −$151 -99%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 05 $60 +$94 +156%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-31? Jan 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-01-21? Jan 22 $3 +$2 +79%
Sharks vs. Lightning Jan 21 $2 +$1 +35%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-01-20? Jan 20 $2 $0 +15%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-20? Jan 20 $57 −$55 -96%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-20? Jan 20 $200 −$191 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $178 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 8h
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $40 9h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 32¢ $97 12h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 26¢ $158 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 61¢ $96 33h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 41¢ $292 38h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $24 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $204 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 31¢ $227 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $484 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $122 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $202 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $153 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $201 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $304 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 47¢ $203 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-1 BUY 54¢ $199 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $99 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $69 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $48 6d
Pegula vs. Potapova: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 52¢ $100 37d
Bengaluru 2: Alex Hernandez vs Yuta Kawahashi BUY Alex Hernandez 79¢ $11 37d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Frances Tiafoe vs Andrea Pellegrino SELL Frances Tiafoe $12 37d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Frances Tiafoe vs Andrea Pellegrino BUY Frances Tiafoe 68¢ $101 37d
Andrey Rublev vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 43¢ $102 37d
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 55¢ $11 38d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? SELL Yes $11 38d
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 49¢ $101 38d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 24¢ $76 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $176.68 · official $176.68 (match) · 354 history records