Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:53:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3A 0x3a86…ad8c sports 75 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$237 (-3%) realized −$231 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate79%57W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$343now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$181
7 days+$278
14 days+$276
30 days−$254
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$489
other 16% +$207
world 1% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +16.5% +5.4% 100% 61% +2.9%
≤30d 72 -4.0% -13.1% 79% 53% -11.2%
≤90d 72 -4.0% -13.1% 79% 53% -11.2%
all 72 -4.0% -13.1% 79% 53% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 53% -11.2%
10% -21.4% 25% -19.7%
15% -29.0% 12% -27.4%
20% -36.0% 7% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$93 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$343
Realized−$231
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses57 / 15
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions3
Markets (closed)72 / 75
History coverage26d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries Golden State Valkyries 93¢ 88¢ $240 $225 −$15 (-6%)
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky New York Liberty 92¢ 100¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? No 90¢ 100¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $230 +$14 +6%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $200 +$17 +8%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $200 +$10 +5%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $23 +$3 +12%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $101 +$53 +52%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $100 +$13 +13%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $18 +$1 +6%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $220 +$5 +2%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $90 +$15 +17%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $111 +$12 +11%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $100 +$10 +10%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 17 $110 +$17 +16%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $100 +$12 +12%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $50 +$7 +14%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $50 +$15 +31%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 16 $148 +$1 +1%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $75 +$26 +34%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 11 $3 −$3 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $2 +$1 +65%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Zachary Svajda Jun 01 $2 $0 +6%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 01 $2 $0 +3%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek May 31 $1 −$1 -99%
ITF Tsaghkadzor: Fryderyk Lechno-Wasiutynski vs Gabriele Bosio May 31 $1 +$1 +54%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals May 30 $169 −$168 -99%
World Championships: Canada vs. Finland May 30 $100 +$11 +11%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox May 30 $55 +$2 +4%
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Naomi Osaka May 30 $118 +$38 +32%
Roland Garros WTA: Maria Sakkari vs Maja Chwalinska May 30 $101 −$67 -67%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners May 30 $65 +$21 +32%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 30 $105 +$10 +10%
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers May 30 $100 +$5 +5%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals May 30 $45 +$3 +7%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 30 $40 +$7 +18%
Indiana Fever vs. Golden State Valkyries May 29 $111 −$111 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $99 +$12 +12%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings May 29 $261 −$260 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox May 28 $70 +$17 +24%
Roland Garros WTA: Victoria Mboko vs Katerina Siniakova May 28 $101 +$40 +40%
Roland Garros WTA: Katie Boulter vs Anastasia Potapova May 28 $101 +$25 +25%
Set 1 Winner: Mboko vs Siniakova May 28 $1 −$1 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Kimberly Birrell May 28 $231 +$47 +20%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 28 $211 +$20 +10%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 28 $210 +$3 +1%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 28 $191 +$18 +10%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres May 27 $8 $0 +1%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $151 +$32 +21%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants May 27 $140 +$17 +12%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $111 +$29 +26%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians May 27 $100 +$13 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 93¢ $40 6m
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 93¢ $200 7m
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 100¢ $245 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? BUY No 90¢ $8 1h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY New York Liberty 92¢ $100 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 94¢ $230 3h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY No 92¢ $200 7h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? BUY No 95¢ $200 9h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? BUY No 89¢ $23 22h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? BUY No 65¢ $101 22h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? BUY No 88¢ $100 23h
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? BUY No 94¢ $18 23h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 98¢ $220 24h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 85¢ $90 25h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY No 90¢ $111 25h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 91¢ $100 27h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY No 86¢ $110 28h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY No 89¢ $100 31h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 3 New Zealand? BUY No 87¢ $50 2d
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? BUY No 76¢ $50 2d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 2 Uruguay? BUY No 99¢ $148 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 67¢ $101 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 74¢ $75 3d
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Connecticut Sun 67¢ $3 7d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 60¢ $2 7d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Zachary Svajda BUY Flavio Cobolli 94¢ $2 16d
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 97¢ $2 17d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek BUY Iga Swiatek 67¢ $1 17d
ITF Tsaghkadzor: Fryderyk Lechno-Wasiutynski vs Gabriele Bosio SELL Fryderyk Lechno-Wasiutynski 100¢ $2 17d
ITF Tsaghkadzor: Fryderyk Lechno-Wasiutynski vs Gabriele Bosio BUY Fryderyk Lechno-Wasiutynski 64¢ $1 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $342.67 · official $355.40 · 148 history records