Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:04:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3A 0x3a86…cc01 sports 208 markets active 1h ago coverage 121d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$10,494 (-4%) realized −$9,842 · open −$652
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate39%80W / 127L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,230per market
Trades / day13.7pace
Fees−$3,396est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 121d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$24,832
politics 0% −$10
world 0% +$123
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -23.6% -30.9% 39% 39% -22.9%
≤30d 203 -7.5% -16.3% 38% 37% -19.4%
≤90d 205 -6.6% -15.5% 39% 38% -18.4%
all 207 -6.6% -15.5% 39% 38% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.7 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.5% 38% -18.4%
10% ← realistic here -23.6% 34% -26.2%
15% -31.0% 27% -33.3%
20% -37.7% 23% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$1,581) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +20% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$985 vs −$810 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$9,842
Unrealized−$652
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses80 / 127
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$3,396
Open positions1
Markets (closed)207 / 208
History coverage121d
Avg bet$1,230
Trades / day13.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 207 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner T1 Academy 46¢ 0¢ $653 $1 −$652 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 64 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $1,013 +$732 +72%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 19 $543 +$171 +31%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $673 +$850 +126%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $756 −$756 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $287 +$281 +98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $417 +$139 +33%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne Jun 18 $58 +$71 +122%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne Jun 18 $447 −$447 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $249 −$245 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $569 −$559 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $481 +$1,041 +216%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 16 $1,110 −$1,094 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $342 −$342 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $605 +$591 +98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $1,573 −$1,571 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $1,581 +$1,620 +102%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $91 −$91 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $570 −$559 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $2,954 −$1,970 -67%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $267 −$267 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $1,501 −$1,482 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $315 −$315 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,127 −$1,120 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $702 −$702 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $234 −$234 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $723 −$709 -98%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $252 +$270 +107%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $926 +$241 +26%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $2,078 +$533 +26%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $4,734 +$3,397 +72%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $3,818 +$1,043 +27%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $113 −$110 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,524 −$1,524 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $1,406 −$1,379 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,108 −$1,107 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $1,881 −$1,861 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $686 +$1,552 +226%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,226 +$250 +20%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $137 −$137 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $3,911 +$1,060 +27%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $4,669 −$1,882 -40%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $799 −$789 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $310 −$303 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $456 +$1,770 +388%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $148 −$144 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $294 −$288 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $3,563 +$910 +26%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $515 −$503 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1,662 −$1,654 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $881 −$880 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $1,745 57m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 58¢ $250 1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 58¢ $28 1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 58¢ $16 1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 58¢ $24 1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 58¢ $146 1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 58¢ $550 1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $713 1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 76¢ $102 2h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 76¢ $11 2h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 76¢ $11 2h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 76¢ $95 2h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 76¢ $11 2h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 76¢ $6 2h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 76¢ $6 2h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 76¢ $6 2h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 76¢ $8 2h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 76¢ $6 2h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 76¢ $6 2h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 76¢ $34 2h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 76¢ $1 2h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 76¢ $234 2h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 76¢ $4 2h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 21¢ $127 2h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 62¢ $152 3h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 62¢ $7 3h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 62¢ $163 3h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 62¢ $210 3h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $1,522 3h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 76¢ $343 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.72 · official $0.72 (match) · 1753 history records