Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:08:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3a88…5f6a other 259 markets active 1h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$83 (-0%) realized −$83 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%13W / 245L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$223per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$18
14 days−$26
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$38
sports 25% −$24
politics 8% −$7
culture 8% −$9
economics 5% −$8
crypto 4% −$6
world 4% −$4
tech 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 68 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 172 -0.8% -10.2% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 258 -0.5% -10.0% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses13 / 245
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)258 / 259
History coverage140d
Avg bet$223
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 258 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 99¢ 99¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $494 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $678 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 23 $149 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $315 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 23 $376 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 23 $571 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 22 $461 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 22 $207 $0 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 22 $64 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 22 $108 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 21 $870 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 21 $361 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $453 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $378 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 20 $118 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $522 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $767 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $234 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 19 $271 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $637 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $483 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $395 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $342 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $343 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $293 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $56 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $340 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 16 $81 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $69 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $383 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $336 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $554 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $280 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $125 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $59 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $255 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $489 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $300 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $843 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $123 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $266 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $507 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $127 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 08 $61 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $131 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $468 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 07 $266 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $62 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 07 $85 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $460 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $53 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $53 3h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $53 5h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 6h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $53 8h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $53 9h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $53 11h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $53 19h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $53 21h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 22h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $53 25h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 25h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $53 26h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 32h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $53 34h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $53 38h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $54 39h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 96¢ $54 45h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 96¢ $54 47h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $54 2d
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $54 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $54 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $54 2d
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $54 2d
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $54 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $54 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $54 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $54 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $54 3d
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.65 · official $52.65 (match) · 1437 history records