Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:34:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3A
0x3a8a…7699
crypto · 226 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$10,628 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$18,456 · open +$21,746
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$832,019
Realized−$18,456
Unrealized+$21,746
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses87 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$500
Open positions115
Markets (closed)161 / 226
Avg bet$2,761
Trades / day148.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 115 History 161 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19,589
7 days−$19,555
14 days−$20,216
30 days−$18,456
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 73¢ 78¢ $99,610 $106,770 +$7,159 (+7%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $88,769 $90,408 +$1,639 (+2%)
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $43,937 $43,875 −$62 (-0%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 63¢ 88¢ $26,484 $36,750 +$10,266 (+39%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day? Yes 92¢ 99¢ $33,565 $36,248 +$2,683 (+8%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 89¢ 94¢ $29,271 $31,004 +$1,732 (+6%)
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? No 88¢ 92¢ $25,225 $26,541 +$1,316 (+5%)
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $23,542 $23,821 +$280 (+1%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Yes 84¢ 90¢ $21,465 $22,747 +$1,282 (+6%)
Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026? No 83¢ 92¢ $19,919 $22,221 +$2,301 (+12%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $19,000 $19,750 +$750 (+4%)
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? Yes 91¢ 100¢ $17,381 $18,952 +$1,572 (+9%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 97¢ 99¢ $15,574 $15,896 +$322 (+2%)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? No 84¢ 86¢ $14,250 $14,458 +$208 (+1%)
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? No 95¢ 97¢ $13,999 $14,292 +$293 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $13,008 $13,560 +$552 (+4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $13,560 $12,840 −$720 (-5%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 48¢ 42¢ $13,741 $11,956 −$1,784 (-13%)
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? No 74¢ 79¢ $9,256 $9,924 +$668 (+7%)
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 98¢ $9,730 $9,775 +$45 (+0%)
SpaceX vs Tesla - higher valuation on June 30? SpaceX 90¢ 90¢ $8,970 $8,950 −$20 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $9,080 $8,360 −$720 (-8%)
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes 68¢ 100¢ $5,450 $7,996 +$2,546 (+47%)
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Yes 52¢ 79¢ $5,231 $7,900 +$2,669 (+51%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 94¢ 92¢ $7,485 $7,372 −$113 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$7 +35%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$2 +31%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $13 +$4 +31%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $18 −$18 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 6PM ET Jun 11 $12 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $11 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $18 +$11 +60%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 5PM ET Jun 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5PM ET Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5PM ET Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5PM ET Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 5PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$7 +35%
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 11 $7,454 +$2,691 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$7 +35%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $706 +$244 +34%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $18 +$4 +24%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $20 −$15 -75%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $15 +$3 +18%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $13 −$13 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +25%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$9 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$2 +25%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$2 +25%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +12%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$5 -53%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$2 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$2 +25%
BNB Up or Down - June 10, 8PM ET Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +20%
BNB Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 11 $17 −$17 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 11 $13 −$10 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 48% +$11,714
economics 21% +$8,171
world 15% −$10,480
politics 7% −$4,117
tech 4% +$4,774
crypto 2% −$2,952
sports 1% −$2,695
finance 1% −$1,124
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $1,196 1m
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? BUY No 83¢ $40 19m
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? BUY No 97¢ $313 20m
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? BUY No 97¢ $114 2h
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? BUY No 97¢ $969 2h
Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release? BUY Yes 86¢ $67 3h
Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release? BUY Yes 86¢ $49 3h
Solana Up or Down on June 12? SELL Down 27¢ $27 5h
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? BUY No 97¢ $19 6h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 15¢ $5 7h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 98¢ $477 7h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 98¢ $1,473 7h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 85¢ $732 8h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 85¢ $85 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $378 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $490 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $465 9h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 85¢ $28 9h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 85¢ $99 9h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 85¢ $20 9h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 85¢ $6 10h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 85¢ $6 10h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 85¢ $43 10h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 85¢ $17 10h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 85¢ $8 10h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 85¢ $227 10h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 85¢ $6 10h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 85¢ $59 10h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 85¢ $15,758 10h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $235 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 125 -9.7% -18.3% 56% 56% -65.2%
≤30d 161 -10.6% -19.1% 54% 50% -19.3%
≤90d 161 -10.6% -19.1% 54% 50% -19.3%
all 161 -10.6% -19.1% 54% 50% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover148.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.1% 50% -19.3%
10% -26.8% 42% -27.0%
15% ← realistic here -33.9% 11% -34.1%
20% -40.4% 9% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $832,018.90 · official $832,016.97 (match) · 3500 history records