Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:18:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
3A 0x3a8e…5651 crypto 101 markets active 5d ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+2%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%50W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$2
world 5% +$4
sports 1% −$1
other 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -3.8% -13.0% 53% 51% -14.5%
≤30d 97 -1.6% -11.0% 48% 46% -9.9%
≤90d 97 -1.6% -11.0% 48% 46% -9.9%
all 101 -1.4% -10.8% 50% 46% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 46% -9.8%
10% -19.4% 41% -18.4%
15% -27.1% 30% -26.3%
20% -34.3% 27% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses50 / 51
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)101 / 101
History coverage122d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 101 Trades
no open positions (47 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$2 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -37%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$5 +490%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 6d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 173 history records