Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:56:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3A 0x3a8f…43eb crypto 1177 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 28d only
✗ bot/MM pace (98 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$70 (+0%) realized +$67 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%684W / 569L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day98.1pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,682
7 days−$1,131
14 days−$406
30 days−$179
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% +$1,568
other 20% +$394
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (98 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 666 -31.8% -38.3% 43% 43% -21.8%
≤30d 1253 -9.3% -17.9% 55% 55% -10.4%
≤90d 1253 -9.3% -17.9% 55% 55% -10.4%
all 1253 -9.3% -17.9% 55% 55% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover98.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.9% 55% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -25.8% 43% -19.0%
15% -33.0% 28% -26.8%
20% -39.5% 20% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$10 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$67
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses684 / 569
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1253 / 1177
History coverage28d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day98.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1253 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Up 61¢ 88¢ $4 $5 +$2 (+44%)
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Up 65¢ 82¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - May 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 30, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 10, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 30, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 28, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 8, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 5, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 2, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 30, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 8, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 3, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 7, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 29, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 8, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 6, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 1, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 28, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 28, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 1, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 4, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $4 1m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $4 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 31m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $4 33m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 36m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 55m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $4 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $4 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $4 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $4 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $8 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.39 · official $9.17 · 3500 history records