Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:13:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
3A 0x3a90…60ea other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$65 (+21%) realized +$67 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit9%portable
Net worth$118now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$70
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.8% -7.9% 33% 33% +25.1%
≤30d 9 +1.8% -7.9% 33% 33% +25.1%
≤90d 9 +1.8% -7.9% 33% 33% +25.1%
all 9 +1.8% -7.9% 33% 33% +25.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 33% +25.1%
10% -16.7% 33% +13.1%
15% -24.7% 22% +2.2%
20% -32.1% 11% -7.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$4 · ×7.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.73 per $1 lost it wins $3.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$118
Realized+$67
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage2d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit9%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $90 $91 +$1 (+1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 58¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $5 −$1 -13%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $58 +$16 +28%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $15 −$9 -57%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 +$42 +411%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $6 −$4 -71%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Iraq? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Jordan (-2.5) Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $81 +$38 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $21 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 3h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 4h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 4h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 4h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $17 15h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $92 22h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 19¢ $10 22h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 22h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 22h
Spread: Jordan (-2.5) BUY Jordan 1¢ $1 24h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 27h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 27h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $81 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.48 · official $118.48 (match) · 24 history records