Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:43:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3a93…feeb world 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+2%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate57%17W / 13L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% −$1
other 24% +$1
crypto 10% +$3
politics 4% +$1
sports 4% +$8
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -2.5% -11.7% 50% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 10 -2.0% -11.3% 40% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 10 -2.0% -11.3% 40% 0% -9.7%
all 30 +7.4% -2.8% 57% 10% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.8% 10% -7.4%
10% -12.1% 7% -16.3%
15% -20.6% 7% -24.3%
20% -28.4% 7% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.02 per $1 lost it wins $7.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses17 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage486d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 89¢ 89¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $33 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $18 $0 +2%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $35 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $8 −$2 -25%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $38 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $38 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $34 +$1 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 10 $34 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 19 $1 $0 -3%
Will Steve Mnuchin buy TikTok? Jun 28 $8 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jun 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will Kim Moon-soo win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 05 $7 +$1 +13%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 15 $12 $0 -1%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 13 $18 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? May 11 $14 $0 -0%
Will Arsenal finish in the top 4 of the EPL? May 10 $17 $0 +0%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the UEFA Europa League? May 10 $17 $0 +2%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? May 08 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $103000 on May 9? May 08 $3 +$3 +112%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? May 07 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Solana reach $210 in April? Apr 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days? Apr 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Apr 03 $14 $0 +3%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $15 $0 +0%
Drexel vs. Delaware Mar 21 $7 +$8 +108%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $34 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $2 5h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $9 5h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $23 5h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $33 7h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $18 26h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $0 26h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $8 30h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $4 30h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $6 30h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $35 3d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $35 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $38 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $38 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $38 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $35 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $34 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $13 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $21 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 91¢ $34 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $34 8d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $38 9d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $38 9d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 89¢ $0 182d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $1 337d
Will Steve Mnuchin buy TikTok? SELL No 98¢ $8 355d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.84 · official $33.84 (match) · 71 history records