trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +12.1% | +1.4% | 100% | 100% | +1.4% |
| ≤30d | 1 | +12.1% | +1.4% | 100% | 100% | +1.4% |
| ≤90d | 4 | -0.9% | -10.3% | 50% | 50% | -7.4% |
| all | 6 | -7.9% | -16.7% | 50% | 50% | -12.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -16.7% | 50% | -12.1% |
| 10% | -24.6% | 33% | -20.5% |
| 15% | -31.9% | 33% | -28.2% |
| 20% | -38.6% | 33% | -35.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran successfully targets shipping by July 31? | Yes | 63¢ | 72¢ | $66 | $76 | +$10 (+15%) |
| Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30? | No | 71¢ | 89¢ | $21 | $26 | +$5 (+25%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? | Jun 26 | $221 | +$27 | +12% |
| Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026? | May 27 | $110 | +$110 | +100% |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by May 31, 2026? | Apr 29 | $67 | −$65 | -97% |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | Apr 09 | $351 | −$55 | -16% |
| Will Bill or Hillary Clinton be held in contempt of Congress by Feb 28 | Mar 05 | $149 | +$83 | +56% |
| Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 31? | Jan 22 | $130 | −$130 | -100% |