Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:34:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3a97…758d world 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 426d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate48%15W / 16L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% +$1
other 13% $0
politics 6% +$1
finance 4% $0
crypto 2% −$1
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.5% -9.1% 33% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 14 +1.3% -8.4% 36% 7% -9.3%
≤90d 15 +1.2% -8.4% 40% 7% -9.3%
all 31 -0.6% -10.1% 48% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 3% -9.3%
10% -18.7% 3% -18.0%
15% -26.6% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

426d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses15 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage426d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $97 −$1 -0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $32 +$1 +3%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $32 $0 +1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $35 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $32 $0 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $73 −$4 -5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $71 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $69 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $12 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $68 −$3 -4%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $3 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $14 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $30 +$7 +25%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 18 $35 $0 +1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Dec 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 17 $19 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jun 27 $14 $0 -2%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -48%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? Jun 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 11 $16 $0 +1%
Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 09 $16 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 09 $16 $0 +0%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jun 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will the May 2025 unemployment rate be 4.5%? Jun 08 $16 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $180 on June 6? Jun 05 $16 $0 +1%
Will the ECB announce no change at the June meeting? Jun 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 03 $19 $0 -0%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Jun 03 $19 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $33 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $14 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $19 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $33 3h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 92¢ $12 12h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 92¢ $22 12h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 89¢ $32 14h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $36 14h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $36 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 71¢ $33 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 70¢ $5 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 70¢ $22 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 70¢ $6 28h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $35 28h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $35 29h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $18 40h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $14 40h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $32 41h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $32 44h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $32 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $19 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $5 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $8 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $32 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 49¢ $33 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 49¢ $33 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 97¢ $36 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 96¢ $36 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 80¢ $36 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 80¢ $36 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.49 · official $33.49 (match) · 100 history records