Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:33:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3a97…f783 other 227 markets active 0h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$69 (-0%) realized −$69 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%10W / 217L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$219per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$19
14 days−$28
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$37
sports 23% −$18
politics 11% −$8
culture 6% −$6
crypto 5% −$3
economics 5% −$4
world 3% −$3
finance 0% $0
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 75 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 172 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 227 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses10 / 217
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)227 / 227
History coverage128d
Avg bet$219
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 227 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $407 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $135 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $349 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $328 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $527 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $261 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $254 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $163 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $112 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $455 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $230 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $50 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $404 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 15 $166 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $686 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $301 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $382 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 14 $418 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $105 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $179 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $233 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $471 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $104 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $258 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $108 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $462 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $202 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $692 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $213 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $474 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $484 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $128 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $175 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $53 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $201 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $302 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $428 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $310 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $188 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $443 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $446 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $389 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 07 $407 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $288 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $343 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $56 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $735 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $197 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $295 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $291 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $49 4m
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $49 1h
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $49 3h
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $49 5h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $49 9h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $49 11h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $49 12h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $49 13h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $49 16h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $49 18h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $49 19h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $49 20h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $49 22h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $50 23h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $50 28h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 30h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $50 34h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $50 36h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 37h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 39h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $50 46h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $50 47h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $50 2d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $50 2d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $50 2d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $50 2d
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $50 2d
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $50 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $50 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1346 history records