Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T18:22:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
3A 0x3a99…40d8 sports 232 markets active 2h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,042 (+5%) realized +$1,042 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate94%218W / 14L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$90est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$118
7 days+$139
14 days+$163
30 days+$791
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$861
other 2% +$100
world 0% +$5
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)+0.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +4.3% -5.6% 88% 32% -4.5%
≤30d 72 +5.3% -4.7% 86% 32% +0.5%
≤90d 101 +21.4% +9.8% 88% 30% -1.2%
all 232 +10.5% +0.0% 94% 15% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.0% 15% -5.5%
10% -9.6% 6% -14.6%
15% -18.3% 4% -22.8%
20% -26.3% 3% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$46 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.51 per $1 lost it wins $2.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,042
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses218 / 14
Est. fees paid−$90
Open positions0
Markets (closed)232 / 232
History coverage148d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 232 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
T20 Blast: Derbyshire vs Yorkshire Jun 28 $203 +$73 +36%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India Jun 28 $204 −$1 -0%
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India - Who wins the toss? Jun 28 $48 +$2 +4%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India - Who wins the toss? Jun 28 $99 +$1 +1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Bangladesh - Who wins the to Jun 28 $88 +$12 +13%
Major League Cricket: Mi New York vs Los Angeles Knight Riders Jun 28 $5 $0 +7%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland Jun 27 $153 +$13 +8%
Maharaja T20 Trophy: Shivamogga Yodhas vs Kalyani Bengaluru Blasters Jun 27 $177 +$9 +5%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands Jun 27 $20 $0 +2%
T20 Blast: Warwickshire vs Worcestershire - Who wins the toss? Jun 27 $52 −$52 -100%
T20 Blast: Hampshire vs Yorkshire Jun 27 $121 +$12 +10%
T20 Blast: Kent vs Nottinghamshire Jun 26 $87 +$1 +1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland Jun 26 $237 +$2 +1%
T20 Blast: Kent vs Nottinghamshire - Who wins the toss? Jun 26 $18 +$2 +12%
T20 Blast: Sussex vs Surrey - Who wins the toss? Jun 26 $17 +$3 +20%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland - Who wins the toss? Jun 26 $88 +$37 +41%
T20 Blast: Somerset vs Gloucestershire - Who wins the toss? Jun 26 $18 +$2 +11%
T20 Blast: Leicestershire vs Lancashire - Who wins the toss? Jun 26 $18 +$2 +11%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Netherlands - Who wins the t Jun 25 $170 +$30 +18%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Bangladesh - Who wins the toss? Jun 25 $78 +$5 +6%
Test Series England vs. New Zealand: England vs New Zealand - Who wins Jun 25 $3 $0 +1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Pakistan - Who wins the toss? Jun 23 $128 +$2 +2%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Ireland - Who wins the toss? Jun 23 $119 +$1 +1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland - Who wins the toss? Jun 23 $46 +$1 +2%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India Jun 21 $284 −$19 -7%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India - Who wins the toss? Jun 21 $95 +$5 +5%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 21 $4 $0 -2%
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs San Francisco Unicorns Jun 20 $2 −$1 -59%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh - Who wins the toss? Jun 20 $52 +$3 +5%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Netherlands - Who wins the toss Jun 20 $96 +$4 +4%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland - Who wins the toss? Jun 19 $49 +$1 +3%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 19 $70 +$1 +2%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland Jun 18 $50 +$2 +4%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan - Who wins the toss Jun 17 $88 +$1 +1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh - Who wins the toss? Jun 17 $88 +$1 +2%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $61 +$8 +13%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan - Who wins the toss? Jun 14 $22 +$3 +12%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $20 +$4 +18%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands - Who wins the tos Jun 14 $149 +$51 +34%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $137 +$5 +4%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka - Who wi Jun 14 $174 +$54 +31%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $84 +$10 +12%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan - Who wins the t Jun 13 $89 +$1 +1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka - Who wins the toss? Jun 12 $198 +$2 +1%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka - Who wi Jun 12 $198 +$2 +1%
T20 Blast: Essex vs Kent Jun 09 $3 $0 -1%
T20 Blast: Gloucestershire vs Worcestershire Jun 07 $714 +$142 +20%
T20 Blast: Somerset vs Warwickshire Jun 07 $15 +$4 +25%
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka - Who wi Jun 06 $82 +$2 +3%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Bhutan vs Qatar - Who wins the toss? Jun 06 $77 +$2 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
T20 Blast: Derbyshire vs Yorkshire SELL Yorkshire 46¢ $198 1h
T20 Blast: Derbyshire vs Yorkshire SELL Yorkshire 50¢ $1 1h
T20 Blast: Derbyshire vs Yorkshire SELL Derbyshire 65¢ $77 1h
T20 Blast: Derbyshire vs Yorkshire BUY Yorkshire 23¢ $102 1h
T20 Blast: Derbyshire vs Yorkshire BUY Derbyshire 84¢ $100 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India SELL India 43¢ $148 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 36¢ $102 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India SELL India 35¢ $55 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 43¢ $102 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India - Who wins the toss? SELL India 100¢ $70 5h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India - Who wins the toss? SELL India 100¢ $5 5h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India - Who wins the toss? SELL India 100¢ $5 5h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India - Who wins the toss? SELL India 100¢ $5 5h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India - Who wins the toss? SELL India 100¢ $5 5h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India - Who wins the toss? SELL India 100¢ $5 5h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India - Who wins the toss? SELL India 100¢ $5 5h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India - Who wins the toss? BUY India 99¢ $99 5h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India - Who wins the toss? BUY India 96¢ $48 6h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Bangladesh - Who wins the to BUY Bangladesh 88¢ $88 9h
Major League Cricket: Mi New York vs Los Angeles Knight Riders SELL Mi New York 22¢ $0 18h
Major League Cricket: Mi New York vs Los Angeles Knight Riders SELL Mi New York 22¢ $5 18h
Major League Cricket: Mi New York vs Los Angeles Knight Riders BUY Mi New York 20¢ $5 18h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland SELL Ireland 41¢ $27 27h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland SELL Ireland 33¢ $18 27h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland BUY Ireland 41¢ $51 27h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland SELL Ireland 35¢ $69 28h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland BUY Ireland 25¢ $51 28h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland SELL Ireland 19¢ $28 28h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland SELL Ireland 19¢ $6 28h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland SELL Ireland 19¢ $2 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 728 history records