Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:47:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
3A 0x3a9a…07c3 other 83 markets active 2h ago coverage 295d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$171 (-26%) realized −$171 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%26W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$141
sports 8% −$50
world 3% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-37.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -11.7% -20.1% 50% 50% +2.7%
≤30d 4 -11.7% -20.1% 50% 50% +2.7%
≤90d 4 -11.7% -20.1% 50% 50% +2.7%
all 82 -31.2% -37.7% 32% 32% -32.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.7% 32% -32.9%
10% -43.7% 30% -39.4%
15% -49.1% 29% -45.2%
20% -54.1% 28% -50.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$7 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

295d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$171
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses26 / 56
Open positions1
Markets (closed)82 / 83
History coverage295d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 53 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $18 +$9 +52%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 +$21 +101%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-04? Jan 04 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-04? Jan 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-01-04? Jan 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will US Cremonese win on 2026-01-04? Jan 04 $4 −$1 -26%
Will FC Nantes win on 2026-01-04? Jan 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-03? Jan 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-01-03? Jan 03 $9 +$11 +112%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-01-03? Jan 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-01-03? Jan 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-01-02? Jan 02 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-01? Jan 01 $5 +$5 +108%
Will Everton FC win on 2025-12-30? Dec 30 $5 +$5 +96%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2025-12-28? Dec 28 $5 +$4 +85%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2025-12-28? Dec 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Nigeria win on 2025-12-27? Dec 27 $8 +$11 +127%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-27? Dec 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-26? Dec 26 $6 +$9 +150%
Pistons vs. Celtics Dec 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2025-12-15? Dec 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-12-14? Dec 14 $14 +$5 +33%
Will SS Lazio win on 2025-12-13? Dec 13 $10 +$4 +37%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-10? Dec 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-12-08? Dec 08 $10 +$6 +61%
Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-12-07? Dec 07 $4 −$4 -100%
UFC 323: Blachowicz vs. Guskov (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) Dec 07 $4 $0 -2%
UFC 323: Moreno vs. Taira (Flyweight, Main Card) Dec 06 $4 −$4 -100%
UFC 323: Cejudo vs. Talbott (Bantamweight, Main Card) Dec 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-12-06? Dec 06 $6 +$3 +54%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-12-06? Dec 06 $4 +$6 +150%
Will AC Milan win on 2025-12-04? Dec 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2025-12-04? Dec 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Dec 03 $6 +$3 +54%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-12-03? Dec 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-12-02? Dec 03 $8 +$6 +78%
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-11-29? Nov 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Queens Park Rangers FC win on 2025-11-29? Nov 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Leicester City FC win on 2025-11-29? Nov 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elche CF win on 2025-11-28? Nov 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will PSV win on 2025-11-26? Nov 26 $5 +$8 +163%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Internazionale Milano end in a dra Nov 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2025-11-25? Nov 25 $5 +$6 +127%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-25? Nov 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-11-25? Nov 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-22? Nov 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Barcelona (-1.5) Nov 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $18 3h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 20h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 49¢ $20 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $12 5d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-04? BUY Yes 52¢ $12 167d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-04? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 167d
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-01-04? BUY No 45¢ $5 167d
Will US Cremonese win on 2026-01-04? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 167d
Will FC Nantes win on 2026-01-04? BUY No 36¢ $5 167d
Will US Cremonese win on 2026-01-04? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 168d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-03? BUY No 50¢ $6 168d
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-01-03? SELL No 100¢ $20 168d
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-01-03? BUY No 47¢ $9 168d
Will AS Roma win on 2026-01-03? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 168d
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-01-03? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 168d
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-01-02? BUY Yes 55¢ $6 169d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-01? SELL No 100¢ $10 170d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-01? BUY No 48¢ $5 170d
Will Everton FC win on 2025-12-30? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 172d
Will Everton FC win on 2025-12-30? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 172d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2025-12-28? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 174d
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2025-12-28? BUY Yes 50¢ $4 174d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2025-12-28? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 174d
Will Nigeria win on 2025-12-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 175d
Will Nigeria win on 2025-12-27? BUY Yes 44¢ $8 175d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $7 175d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 176d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $6 176d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.07 · official $10.07 (match) · 112 history records