Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T18:20:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3a9a…72e7 sports 213 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (256 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,497 (-18%) realized −$1,614 · open +$117
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%67W / 96L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day255.7pace
Fees−$103est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$1,968now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$179
7 days−$850
14 days−$1,572
30 days−$1,572
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$1,586
other 26% +$129
crypto 0% +$1
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (256 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 108 -8.0% -16.7% 41% 40% -29.4%
≤30d 163 -9.8% -18.4% 41% 40% -31.5%
≤90d 163 -9.8% -18.4% 41% 40% -31.5%
all 163 -9.8% -18.4% 41% 40% -31.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover255.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.4% 40% -31.5%
10% ← realistic here -26.2% 38% -38.1%
15% -33.3% 34% -44.1%
20% -39.9% 29% -49.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
14.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$37 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$1,968
Realized−$1,614
Unrealized+$117
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses67 / 96
Est. fees paid−$103
Open positions50
Markets (closed)163 / 213
History coverage12d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day255.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 50 History 163 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs K27 45¢ 100¢ $119 $266 +$147 (+123%)
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $163 $164 +$1 (+0%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs G2 27¢ 28¢ $143 $145 +$3 (+2%)
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $133 $133 +$0 (+0%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 74¢ 74¢ $118 $117 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 31¢ 30¢ $103 $100 −$3 (-3%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 38¢ 38¢ $78 $77 −$1 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BetBoom Team 46¢ 46¢ $76 $75 −$1 (-1%)
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 77¢ 75¢ $75 $74 −$2 (-3%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 28¢ 42¢ $45 $66 +$22 (+49%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 20¢ 26¢ $50 $64 +$14 (+27%)
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 67¢ 69¢ $61 $63 +$2 (+4%)
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 11¢ 11¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 64¢ 57¢ $59 $53 −$6 (-10%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 62¢ $44 $49 +$5 (+12%)
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage GenOne 47¢ 61¢ $36 $47 +$11 (+30%)
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 41¢ 46¢ $33 $37 +$4 (+13%)
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 49¢ 47¢ $36 $35 −$1 (-3%)
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 44¢ 46¢ $33 $34 +$1 (+4%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 32¢ $31 $32 +$2 (+5%)
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 42¢ 44¢ $31 $32 +$1 (+3%)
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 31¢ 32¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $16 $17 +$2 (+10%)
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Infinite 27¢ 8¢ $54 $15 −$39 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $58 +$100 +173%
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs Galions (+1.5) Jun 15 $3 +$2 +78%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $9 +$11 +121%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $100 +$174 +174%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $9 +$11 +125%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $31 +$38 +124%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $73 −$73 -100%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $4 +$6 +137%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $43 −$43 -100%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) Jun 15 $55 −$55 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$48 +93%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $4 +$6 +134%
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $83 −$83 -100%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Jun 15 $120 −$120 -100%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Cloud9 New York - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $7 +$15 +232%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Cloud9 New York - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $54 −$54 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $16 +$20 +128%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $4 +$1 +32%
Game Handicap: GAL (-2.5) vs Eintracht Spandau (+2.5) Jun 14 $116 +$22 +19%
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+1.5) Jun 14 $4 +$1 +26%
Game Handicap: SLY (-2.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+2.5) Jun 14 $17 +$14 +86%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $26 +$11 +43%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $26 +$11 +41%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $6 +$2 +24%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $4 +$1 +42%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $38 −$38 -100%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 173.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $6 +$9 +170%
Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs Vivo Keyd Stars (+1.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Carolina Royal Ravens - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$42 +211%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Duty League Jun 13 $4 +$6 +158%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 13 $12 +$13 +101%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $8 +$7 +93%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Boston Breach - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Game Handicap: KCB (-1.5) vs Forsaken (+1.5) Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 12 $53 −$53 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 74¢ $4 1m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $2 3m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $2 6m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 74¢ $4 7m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 74¢ $4 10m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $2 10m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $2 11m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 74¢ $4 13m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 27¢ $1 13m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $2 16m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $2 24m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 27¢ $1 26m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 74¢ $4 28m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $2 29m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 27¢ $1 38m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $2 39m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 27¢ $1 40m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $2 42m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 27¢ $1 42m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $2 42m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 74¢ $4 42m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 74¢ $4 44m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 74¢ $4 45m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $2 46m
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 47¢ $2 49m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $2 52m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $2 52m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $2 54m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 74¢ $4 55m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 74¢ $4 55m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,968.41 · official $1,970.32 (match) · 3245 history records