Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:09:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
3A 0x3a9b…636c other 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$137 (+18%) realized +$140 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%12W / 22L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$73
7 days+$68
14 days+$111
30 days+$122
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$119
sports 40% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -18.1% -25.9% 31% 31% +1.7%
≤30d 34 -14.4% -22.6% 35% 35% +5.5%
≤90d 34 -14.4% -22.6% 35% 35% +5.5%
all 34 -14.4% -22.6% 35% 35% +5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.6% 35% +5.5%
10% -30.0% 35% -4.6%
15% -36.7% 35% -13.8%
20% -42.9% 32% -22.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +17% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -50% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$17 · ×2.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$140
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses12 / 22
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions4
Markets (closed)34 / 38
History coverage17d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Over 58¢ 56¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-4%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-21%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $31 +$34 +108%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $62 +$77 +123%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $71 +$103 +144%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$8 +75%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 +$16 +104%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $15 +$23 +151%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 15 $31 +$56 +184%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$45 +440%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $46 +$72 +157%
Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$9 +43%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $37 +$40 +108%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 06 $15 +$11 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $41 34m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 43¢ $15 13h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 34¢ $20 19h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 19h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $31 38h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $62 44h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 36¢ $20 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $42 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $71 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $10 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $26 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $25 3d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 29¢ $10 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $10 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $20 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $10 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $15 5d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 48¢ $15 5d
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 39¢ $15 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $15 6d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 31¢ $8 6d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Curaçao 15¢ $5 6d
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 7d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $10 7d
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 7d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.93 · official $41.28 (match) · 72 history records