Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:06:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
3A 0x3a9d…9805 sports 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 60d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$261 (+13%) realized +$261 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$183per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$593
7 days+$593
14 days+$593
30 days+$593
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$382
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +41.4% +27.9% 60% 60% +42.5%
≤30d 5 +41.4% +27.9% 60% 60% +42.5%
≤90d 11 +1.0% -8.7% 45% 45% +7.6%
all 11 +1.0% -8.7% 45% 45% +7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 45% +7.6%
10% -17.4% 45% -2.7%
15% -25.4% 45% -12.1%
20% -32.7% 45% -20.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$197 vs −$101 · ×1.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$261
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage60d
Avg bet$183
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $203 −$118 -58%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $203 +$258 +127%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $201 +$153 +76%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 18 $38 −$7 -17%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $386 +$306 +79%
LoL: Apex Mission Impossible vs Blue Otter (BO3) - North American Chal Apr 23 $35 −$35 -99%
LoL: Apex Mission Impossible vs Blue Otter - Game 2 Winner Apr 23 $200 −$164 -82%
LoL: RED Academy vs Vivo Keyd Stars Academy (BO1) - Circuito Desafiant Apr 21 $158 −$82 -52%
LoL: RED Academy vs Estral Esports (BO1) - Circuito Desafiante Regular Apr 21 $200 −$200 -100%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Team Lynx - Game 1 Winner Apr 21 $173 +$117 +67%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Spirit (+1.5) Apr 20 $219 +$154 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner SELL PlayTime 21¢ $85 29m
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY PlayTime 48¢ $203 40m
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner SELL PlayTime 97¢ $461 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY PlayTime 42¢ $203 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 100¢ $354 2h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America SELL PlayTime 34¢ $31 2h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 40¢ $4 2h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 40¢ $4 2h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 40¢ $2 2h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 40¢ $2 2h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 40¢ $2 2h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 40¢ $2 2h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 40¢ $2 2h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 40¢ $21 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 56¢ $201 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $692 8h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $386 10h
LoL: Apex Mission Impossible vs Blue Otter (BO3) - North American Chal BUY Blue Otter 52¢ $35 56d
LoL: Apex Mission Impossible vs Blue Otter - Game 2 Winner SELL Apex Mission Impossible 13¢ $36 56d
LoL: Apex Mission Impossible vs Blue Otter - Game 2 Winner BUY Apex Mission Impossible 69¢ $200 56d
LoL: RED Academy vs Vivo Keyd Stars Academy (BO1) - Circuito Desafiant SELL RED Academy 25¢ $67 58d
LoL: RED Academy vs Vivo Keyd Stars Academy (BO1) - Circuito Desafiant SELL RED Academy 42¢ $9 58d
LoL: RED Academy vs Vivo Keyd Stars Academy (BO1) - Circuito Desafiant BUY RED Academy 51¢ $50 58d
LoL: RED Academy vs Vivo Keyd Stars Academy (BO1) - Circuito Desafiant BUY RED Academy 61¢ $61 58d
LoL: RED Academy vs Vivo Keyd Stars Academy (BO1) - Circuito Desafiant BUY RED Academy 51¢ $24 58d
LoL: RED Academy vs Vivo Keyd Stars Academy (BO1) - Circuito Desafiant BUY RED Academy 51¢ $8 58d
LoL: RED Academy vs Vivo Keyd Stars Academy (BO1) - Circuito Desafiant BUY RED Academy 51¢ $14 58d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Team Lynx - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 59¢ $173 58d
LoL: RED Academy vs Estral Esports (BO1) - Circuito Desafiante Regular BUY Estral Esports 58¢ $200 59d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Spirit (+1.5) BUY Vitality 58¢ $219 60d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 33 history records