Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:32:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3a9f…ea97 crypto 661 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 3d only
✗ bot/MM pace (802 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$675 (-2%) realized −$674 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%328W / 500L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day801.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$14,603
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (802 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-28.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 828 -20.9% -28.4% 40% 40% -8.2%
≤30d 828 -20.9% -28.4% 40% 40% -8.2%
≤90d 828 -20.9% -28.4% 40% 40% -8.2%
all 828 -20.9% -28.4% 40% 40% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover801.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.4% 40% -8.2%
10% ← realistic here -35.3% 40% -17.0%
15% -41.5% 40% -25.0%
20% -47.3% 40% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +58% → late -100% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$34 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$674
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses328 / 500
Open positions1
Markets (closed)828 / 661
History coverage4d ⚠
Avg bet$52
Trades / day801.7
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 828 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 20 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 20 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 20 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 20 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 20 $179 −$179 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 20 $534 −$534 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $62 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $0 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $19 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $0 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $12 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $50 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $0 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $62 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $80 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $80 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.09 · official $59.09 (match) · 3500 history records