Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:51:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3aa1…473c other 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$14 (-14%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%7W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$14
14 days−$17
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$15
other 42% −$15
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-32.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -28.3% -35.1% 26% 26% -31.1%
≤30d 28 -25.1% -32.2% 25% 25% -42.1%
≤90d 28 -25.1% -32.2% 25% 25% -42.1%
all 28 -25.1% -32.2% 25% 25% -42.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.2% 25% -42.1%
10% -38.7% 25% -47.7%
15% -44.7% 25% -52.7%
20% -50.1% 21% -57.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses7 / 21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)28 / 30
History coverage26d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 19¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-26%)
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Lando Norris achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Down 79¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? No 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Max Verstappen achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$6 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $2 +$10 +466%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $1 +$5 +442%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $2 −$1 -50%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Pr May 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix May 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will George Russell win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 23 $2 +$1 +42%
Will Lando Norris achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the 20 May 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Max Verstappen achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the May 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 21m
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 1h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.57 · official $1.57 (match) · 66 history records