Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:34:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3A 0x3aa8…831c crypto 120 markets active 1d ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+5%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate58%70W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$13
14 days+$13
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 +13.9% +3.1% 62% 61% +4.6%
≤30d 80 +13.9% +3.1% 62% 61% +4.6%
≤90d 120 +2.9% -6.9% 58% 55% -6.6%
all 120 +2.9% -6.9% 58% 55% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 55% -6.6%
10% -15.8% 48% -15.5%
15% -24.0% 34% -23.7%
20% -31.4% 24% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses70 / 50
Open positions0
Markets (closed)120 / 120
History coverage63d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 120 Trades
no open positions (39 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$9 +821%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$3 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 221 history records